Georgia has ruled the SEC under Kirby Smart for nearly a decade. That is why any prediction picking another champion gets immediate attention. ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum just made that exact call, boldly naming Texas as the program ready to end Georgia’s run and capture its first SEC title since moving from the Big 12.

“I’m actually selling that,” Paul Finebaum said on Crain & Cone when asked whether Georgia would make three straight SEC championships. “I know it’s easy to say, and we all say it, but I do think this is Sarkisian’s year.”

It is a bold pick, given Georgia’s back-to-back SEC titles. But Finebaum also argued that losing the SEC title game would not ruin Georgia’s season. For elite programs like Georgia and Texas, the national championship remains the ultimate prize, but taking Atlanta first gives Sarkisian the exact momentum he needs.

“I don’t think that is the ultimate goal for him,” he added. “And quite frankly, it shouldn’t be the ultimate goal for Kirby Smart. I’ve been in Atlanta a lot. I’ve been in Athens a lot the last couple years. I’ve yet to see an SEC championship banner… For schools like Georgia and Texas, the ultimate goal is to winning it all.”

Finebaum’s point is grounded in roster growth. Texas has closed the talent gap with Georgia by building around quarterback Arch Manning and aggressive portal additions. The Longhorns have handled almost everyone else in the conference, leaving Georgia as the final hurdle standing between them and total SEC dominance.

Solving Georgia has been the Longhorns’ biggest challenge. They came close in the regular season before a 30-15 loss, followed by a painful 22-19 overtime loss in the SEC Championship Game. Texas was inches away from announcing its arrival, but Georgia proved why it still ruled the conference.

Entering 2026, Texas believes the formula has changed. Arch Manning returns for his second year as starting quarterback with Heisman expectations after a 9-3 campaign. Steve Sarkisian also reloaded in the portal, landing Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown to give this offense explosive depth Georgia cannot ignore.

Paul Finebaum isn’t out on a limb here. Plenty of people see Texas as a real SEC title contender, and even prediction markets have the Longhorns right behind Georgia entering 2026. But rankings and odds don’t settle anything. The real test still wears red and black. Steve Sarkisian hasn’t solved the Kirby Smart problem yet, and until that changes, the Bulldogs are still the program everyone else is trying to knock off.