OSU’s 2025 playoff dream ended with a loss to Miami in the CFP quarterfinal; they are desperate to make a title run this season. But the team’s 2026 schedule is arguably among the most difficult (The Athletic ranked it seventh in the country). Despite that, when national analyst Paul Finebaum is optimistic about OSU’s playoff fate.

“I would say more likely they win the national championship than miss the playoffs,” said Finebaum during an interview with ESPN Cleveland (850 FM) this week. “I think last year they got bored after beating Texas; they just kind of sleptwalked through the season, but there’s just so much talent on the team. Those games sound daunting, but playing on the road in Iowa, I’ve heard this routine a million times. Usually, the better routine wins. That’s not a place where you’re getting massive upsets.”

Without Iowa, Ryan Day’s OSU has to play road games against Indiana (the 2025 national champion) and USC before returning home to host Oregon in four weeks. That pushes Ohio State’s difficulty rating high, considering the sheer physical attrition. “I think Indiana will be very good, but I don’t know how they can replicate it. USC is a little bit of a mystery to me,” added Finebaum.

Last season, against Indiana in the B1G championship game, OSU lost 13-10 because of an offensive struggle. The Hoosiers sacked QB Julian Sayin five times, forcing him into several bad reads. But this season, with new OC Arthur Smith, Sayin & Co. is getting ready to fight a tough battle. However, that’s not all. OSU will travel to Austin in Week 2 to play Texas before heading to Lincoln to face Nebraska in November 2026.

The 2026 regular-season-ending game against Michigan is also a big concern for Day’s squad, because after a four-game losing streak, OSU beat the Wolverines in 2025. This season, the Buckeyes set their expectation: beating Michigan is a must. Even Finebaum’s comment backed this sentiment: “I’m not concerned about Michigan at all.”

However, not all see OSU through the same lens. This season, it will play the highest-ranked SEC team alongside five B1G teams. Considering that, FanDuel’s oddsmakers set the Buckeyes’ regular-season win total at 9.5 wins. In that case, for a three-loss team appearing in the CFP won’t be easy; ask Texas.

In 2025, despite having a strong schedule, the Longhorns’ three losses, including one to OSU, knocked them out of the playoff run. Even this season, Texas’s schedule is more difficult than OSU’s. Finebaum also supported during his appearance on the SEC Network, saying, “Texas, everybody thinks they could be the national champions. They’ve got Arch. Look at this schedule. Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss. I mean, at LSU, at A&M, this is one of the trickiest schedules for a contender I have seen.”

While this season Texas faces OSU, the Buckeyes are ready to win all games because that’s their standard, said Sayin.

Ryan Day’s take on OSU’s success in 2026

After OSU missed the 2025 title run because of on-field mistakes, Ryan Day brought in Arthur Smith for offense and Matt Patricia for defense this season. The Buckeyes’ 2026 roster also contains last season’s notable pieces, including Heisman-finalist QB and standout WR Jeremiah Smith. With this kind of setup, the head coach is confident about bringing more success.

“I think that our culture has never been stronger,” said Day to ON3’s Chris Low in April 2026. “I think when you just look at the guys that we’re producing, when you talk to NFL personnel, the feedback we’ve gotten has been over the top about the type of person that comes into this program, the type of players that we have, the way that they handle themselves.”

“I also think the consistency that we’ve had over the last decade is appealing to recruits. They like the stability part of it. And, yes, we do expect to win every game here,” added the OSU head coach.

Now, we will see how the Buckeyes’ 2026 season unfolds.