The Pac-12 is poised for an epic comeback! The conference became an afterthought following the retention of just two schools, Oregon State and Washington State, in the 2024 season. It was a historic collapse that saw ten of its former members jump ship. Oregon, USC, Washington, and UCLA packed up for the Big Ten. The Big 12 welcomed Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah. Meanwhile, the ACC won over Cal and Stanford. But just when we thought the Pac-12 was about to dissolve, they’re en route to enter legit FBS conversation once more. 

In a new episode on ESPN College Football on June 18, Pete Thamel reported that Texas State could be headed west as early as July 1. “The Pac-12, which needs to grow to eight football-playing schools, a decision appears to be looming by July 1st,” he said. “That is when Texas State, the heavy favorite to join that league, would have a buyout that would grow from $5 million to $10 million… I would think in the next week or two, and my sources have told me that the conversations will continue between Texas State and the Pac-12, and it’s likely a formal invitation will go.” If Texas State moves to the Pac-12, the conference would be deemed as an FBS conference in 2026.

For the Pac-12, it isn’t just about adding programs. It’s about fighting for survival. With Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, and even basketball-only Gonzaga already on board, Texas State would be the eighth football member, finally getting the league back into FBS eligibility. Pete Thamel also reported that if the Bobcats fail to make the move before July 1, their exit fee would cost them an extra $5 million.

Texas State, for its part, has earned this moment. After joining the FBS in 2012 and limping through eight straight losing seasons, the Bobcats have flipped the script under head coach G.J. Kinne. Now, they have back-to-back winning years, two straight bowl victories, and more than 40,000 students enrolled last fall. And as Pete Thamel said, “deadlines spur actions,” so it’s likely a major realignment is happening soon. And if it does, it’s going to create a ripple effect. 

How Texas State’s Pac-12 move could affect the Sun Belt conference 

If Texas State switches conferences, the Sun Belt isn’t just going to shrug it off. While it’s not a done deal, potential ripples include Louisiana Tech. “The favorite to replace them would be Louisiana Tech in the Sun Belt,” Pete Thamel said. “They had these discussions last year when Texas State was hot and heavy with the Mountain West.” The Bulldogs, who already have built-in rivalries with ULM, Southern Miss, and Louisiana, have long been on the radar, especially when the Bobcats had talks with the Mountain West last fall, which they later turned down.

“I’ve been told today that people at Western Kentucky are not happy with how that’s going to go, so perhaps they put on a push,” Thamel added. Still, Louisiana Tech’s rivalries, geographic fit, and strong baseball/softball tradition might seal the deal. As of now, the Pac-12 declined to comment, but internally, Texas State has been seen as the best plug-and-play option to get the conference back on track. 

There’s no luxury of time, no room for indecision. It’s about staying afloat. And if this deal hits by July 1, the Pac-12 just might get its breath back.