Arch Manning is only 2-3 in true road starts, and this is Texas’s first true road game of 2026 and his first trip to Knoxville. A win would give him his first road victory of the year and the first Manning family win at Neyland by a Texas quarterback. The issue is whether Texas can even create enough snaps for him to work with.
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“Of course, uh, Arch Manning is gonna have to avoid some making some mistakes. He’s gonna have to capitalize off of the few opportunities he’s going to get,” Stephen A. Smith said on ESPN’s First Take, September 24. “But to me, the key is, can Texas stop Tennessee from running the football down their throat? If they can do that, they win this game. If they can’t, they don’t. It’s that simple to me,” he added on the same show.
Smith’s point leaves Manning little room. Tennessee wants to hold the ball, which gives the Texas quarterback fewer chances to respond. The plan is to run and keep Manning from finding a rhythm.
The Volunteers are 3-0 and ranked No. 14. They beat Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State. They average about 299 rushing yards per game, and freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon adds another challenge.
He is 41-of-64 for 552 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Brandon is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with a 167.5 rating. He has also run 26 times for 137 yards and three scores. DeSean Bishop has 286 yards and four touchdowns, and Daune Morris has 234 yards.
That threat is why Smith warned about Manning’s mistakes. The UTSA game showed why. Manning went 17-of-33 for 164 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. That 51.5% completion rate was his lowest of the season.
He missed Cam Coleman on a deep post and Emmett Mosley on two fourth-down throws. After a hit that knocked his helmet off, his production dropped. PFF tracked him scrambling on 8 of 42 dropbacks.
“I thought Arch kind of fell in love with his legs a little bit tonight. His legs are a really good weapon. … But what happens when you go to run?” Steve Sarkisian said the same thing after the game. “You can start speeding up through your progressions, and I think that’s why we don’t want to make a living with him running the ball as much as he ran tonight,” the head coach added.
Manning did not argue with that. “Ultimately, not good enough. I didn’t play well. Offense, we were a little sloppy. Gotta be better if we want to beat Tennessee,” he said. After UTSA, he echoed the same sentiment: “Gotta watch film. Gotta be better. It starts with me.”
He pointed to completions and taking what the defense gives him. This contrasts with the Ohio State game, when Texas trailed 23-3 and Manning answered in the fourth quarter.
The 2026 stats still look fine. Manning is 60-of-97 for 664 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions at 6.8 yards per attempt. Last year he completed 61.4% for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions at 7.8 yards per attempt.
Texas allows about 109 rushing yards per game. That is the number that matters against a team averaging 299. Jim Knowles now runs the Tennessee defense. The Vols have only faced Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State so far.
Coleman has 11 catches for 178 yards and four touchdowns if Texas is forced to throw. Hollywood Smothers is questionable, and if he is limited, even more of the offense falls on Manning.
Tennessee’s run game can keep Manning on the sideline. This is Texas’s first 2026 road game and Manning’s first look at Neyland. He could reach 5,000 passing yards and 600 rushing yards. Manning may not get many chances this Saturday, and each one will count more than usual.