Alabama facing Indiana at the Rose Bowl will be a brand new chapter in college football history. These two programs have never met on the gridiron before. But if there’s one person who knows both sides of this story intimately, it’s former Alabama (and current Ohio State) defensive back Caleb Downs. Downs has some strong opinions about how this one’s going to play out.​

Caleb Downs, speaking with his brother on their podcast, found himself in an interesting position after Ohio State lost to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. When asked about the upcoming Rose Bowl clash, the safety didn’t hide his conflicted feelings. “I wanna get back. I wanna get back. But I do think, Roll Tide. I think it’s going to be a game for sure, but I do think somehow someway, Roll tide.” 

However, the fact is that Indiana isn’t Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide pulled off one of the most remarkable comebacks in CFP history last Friday night. They erased a 17-0 deficit in Norman to win 34-24. They trailed by 17 points, only to score 27 consecutive points and stun the Sooners. However, Indiana’s defense is a completely different beast. They rank second nationally in scoring defense at just 10.8 points per game and third in rushing defense at 77.62 yards per game. They’re not going to give Alabama the same leeway to climb back into the game that Oklahoma did.​​ 

Colts star wide receiver Josh Brown also said, “Indiana vs. Alabama. This is a game. I like Indiana, and I like Indiana because I’m in the state. I do think they’re not going to be able to go down like they did against Oklahoma.” 

The oddsmakers have taken notice. Despite Alabama’s heroics in their first-round victory, they opened as 7-point underdogs against the Hoosiers. That spread has tightened slightly to 6.5 at some books. But the verdict is against them. Alabama’s plan in Norman relied heavily on forcing turnovers. Oklahoma made three critical mistakes that directly led to 17 points.

But that kind of chaos might not materialize against a disciplined Indiana offense that protects the football and methodically moves down the field. Alabama was outgained 362-260 by the Sooners but still won because it capitalized on every mistake. Against Indiana, those mistakes might not come.​​

The Crimson Tide will get a massive boost on the defensive side if they get the expected return of defensive lineman LT Overton. Overton missed the last two games due to an undisclosed health issue. He just posted on social media, “Back like I never left,” and was cleared to play just days before the Rose Bowl. 

His presence on the edge could be crucial in containing Indiana’s balanced attack led by running backs Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, and Khobie Martin. Still, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer faces a monumental challenge. His team needs to play a complete game from the opening whistle, not dig themselves into another hole and hope the magic happens again. Indiana won’t allow the self-inflicted wounds that doomed Oklahoma. The Hoosiers are efficient, disciplined, and playing at home as the top seed.

JD PicKell’s bold call

On3’s JD PicKell isn’t buying into the Crimson Tide magic this time around. And his reasoning makes a whole lot of sense. The college football analyst released his prediction on Tuesday, forecasting a 31-20 win for Indiana.

“My pick in this game is very much so geared toward what I don’t feel good about projecting,” PicKell explained during his show. “I don’t feel good about projecting Alabama to turn Fernando Mendoza over, not just once, but probably multiple times, if they’re going to win the game. Mendoza has a total of zero multi-interception games this season. Zero. So it would be a first for you, Bama.”

The Indiana quarterback has been remarkably efficient all year, throwing just six interceptions across 13 games while tossing 33 touchdowns. Alabama’s comeback against Oklahoma was fueled by three critical turnovers that led directly to 17 points. But banking on that same chaos against a quarterback who protects the football as Mendoza does is asking for a lot.​​

Top Stories

LIV Golf Braces for Another Possible Exit in Wake of Brooks Koepka Departure

Sean Payton Announces Retirement Plans as Broncos HC Demands Improvement From Bo Nix & Co. Before Playoffs

Greg Biffle’s $4M Prized Possession Goes Up for Sale After Tragic Crash, Leaving NASCAR Fans Heartbroken

Biff Poggi All But Confirms Bryce Underwood’s Michigan Future After Announcing His Own Departure

‘Fighting for His Life’: ESPN Confirms Kirk Herbstreit’s Silent Struggles at College GameDay

Rory McIlroy Makes Feelings Clear on Bryson DeChambeau’s PGA Tour Return: ‘Have Lost…’

The bigger issue for Alabama, according to PicKell, is that you can’t just flip a switch and suddenly become dominant in the trenches. “The physicality of Alabama up front, I don’t think you learn how to stop the run and run the football in January, unfortunately. Maybe you can find a way to do it in different points in the year, but not in January,” he said. 

The Tide needs to force turnovers, establish the run, and play mistake-free football for four quarters against a team that’s been doing all three things better than just about anyone this season. It’s a tall order for a team that’s already pulled off one miracle comeback.