After starting just one season in college football, Ty Simpson is walking into the 2026 NFL draft as a polarizing prospect. Some scouts see a poised processor with pro traits; others see a QB with limited starting reps and shaky late-season tape. They feel it’s almost by default that he’s the QB2 in this class. And as draft boards start to tighten up, one former LSU national champion decided to drop a warning about the Alabama QB.

“I can guarantee you whatever team drafts Ty Simpson that GM gets fired within 2 years,” Breiden Fehoko unloaded on X on February 18. 

Is this a warning worth heeding or just heat-of-the-moment noise? The retired 29-year-old won it all at LSU in 2020. His NFL career started as an undrafted free agent, and he later spent time with the Chargers and Steelers and has seen enough football to know how brutal QB evaluations can be.

Fehoko’s point is simple and holds for all 32 teams. You choose the wrong QB, you suffer the consequences by getting fired. Just ask former Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. He chose not to re-sign Sam Darnold and instead moved ahead with J.J. McCarthy, who later suffered a poor rookie season. That decision ultimately led to his firing last month. Could that same thing happen with Ty Simpson?

Many people are still not sold on Ty Simpson. The 6’2, 210-pounder may be QB2, but it says more about the class than it does about him. He has just 15 college starts. When the 2025 season kicked off, he had attempted only 51 passes over three years at Alabama. So why are scouts still intrigued by this 23-year-old?

If you check the tape from September and October, his footwork is clean for someone with limited reps. Through Halloween, you could argue he was the best pure processor in college football. He climbs the pocket naturally and resets without panic. So what changed?

The back half of his season, confidence dipped as the clock sped up. Over the final six games, Ty Simpson made more mistakes than he did in the previous nine. When pressure mounted, his process rushed, defenses adjusted, and he didn’t counter consistently. That’s the red flag. And it may be why Fehoko feels comfortable making a bold guarantee.

But although he’s the QB2, he isn’t expected to go top five, maybe not even top 10. The more logical landing spots are in the back half of the first round. Those teams can afford patience and won’t throw him into action in Week 1 and hope for magic. Because if that happens, Fehoko’s warning might come true.

Draft dynamics could decide Ty Simpson’s fate

By now, everyone knows the first round pick is Indiana’s QB Fernando Mendoza. After that, it’s foggy. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. slots Ty Simpson as QB2, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock for Round 1. In fact, there are real scenarios where he slides to Day 2, and it might have nothing to do with his talent.

Look at the teams. The New York Jets are the only franchise that desperately needs a QB. They own the No. 2 and No. 16 picks. If they go trench-heavy at No. 2, Ty Simpson could be staring at them again at 16. But here’s the dilemma. If the Jets believe he’ll still be there on Day 2, why reach early? And that’s how prospects slide.

The Rams might get him as Matthew Stafford’s eventual replacement. The Steelers, sitting at No. 21, need receiver help badly and might pass on a QB early. And the business side of this is that teams make lucrative savings by not drafting a QB in the first round. So, if front offices think they can wait, they will.

Breiden Fehoko’s warning is not insane. Get the QB wrong, and you’re out. Ty Simpson isn’t a sure thing, but he’s not a reckless gamble either. If a bad team drafts him to start immediately, though, that could be a disaster waiting to happen. But he’s a developmental bet with high-level traits and low-level experience. So we’ll see how it plays out.