Ever since Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman, almost every mock draft has predicted he will be the No. 1 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. From Mel Kiper Jr. and ESPN’s Matt Miller to Field Yates, the verdict on Mendoza is almost unanimous. But one major NFL draft analyst now moves away from the verdict and slips Mendoza down in the NFL draft. He is also not convinced by the Hoosiers QB1’s prowess.

NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay appeared on the February 13 podcast episode of Wake Up Barstool and reasoned why it won’t make sense for the Raiders to take Fernando. “You’ve got a new coach in, Klint Kubiak, who comes in. You’re looking at this with Ashton Jeanty at running back,” McShay said. “You need offensive line help. You need defensive help. You need more. You need all these things.”

Instead of the Raiders taking in Mendoza at 1st overall, McShay predicted the New York Jets to move a spot up and trade the pick with the Raiders. That also will make sense for the Jets since they hold two first-round picks (2nd and 16th) in the 2026 NFL draft and have consistently selected in the first round in previous years.

Because of that, the Jets already have multiple first-round players like Armand Membou, Olu Fashanu, and Will McDonald. Additionally, the team also needs a solid QB after Justin Fields’ 2025 season was a disaster, and he won’t be back again in 2026. All the Jets need is a big, tall, and pocket-passing QB, matching Fernando Mendoza’s description. As for the Raiders, McShay touted them to benefit from 2027’s elite QB class.

“Do the Raiders start to ask themselves with John Spytek, the GM, and Brady in his role, and with Kubiak as the head coach now, maybe are we better off passing this year?” McShay said. “Move back, get an additional pick next year, get ourselves in position for an Arch Manning, a Dante Moore, a LaNorris Sellers, or Brendon Sorsby. Maybe the best quarterback draft we’ve ever had a year from now.”

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It’s a nice thought and also makes sense for the Raiders. The team is coming off a 3-14 season and has glaring O-line needs for RB Ashton Jeanty to function. The former Boise State RB was hit behind the line on 54.1% of his carries, and outside Kolton Miller, upgrades are desperately needed. That way, Jeanty could elevate his game after a 975-yard rushing rookie season with the team. Apart from the O-line, other reinforcements are also desperately needed in the Raiders’ camp.

Todd McShay is not convinced by Fernando Mendoza’s ability

The team needs an explosive WR1 to complement tight end Brock Bowers’ explosiveness, and also needs secondary additions to improve their weak pass defense. The Raiders managed to give away 201 passing yards per game and allowed 3,417 total passing yards. The linebacker and DL positions are other areas where the team should tap in the draft, as it has interior line issues, along with edge depth problems.

As a result, McShay predicted the  Raiders would avoid Mendoza due to their glaring team needs. But he also highlighted the Hoosiers’ QB’s limitations and graded him weakly for a first overall pick. “I’m not convinced,” McShay said about Fernando. “And you talk to people in the league, and they’re not convinced that he’s one of those guys that we’re talking about.”

Apart from Todd McShay, Fox Sports’ NFL analyst Bucky Brooks also graded Mendoza similarly. For him, the Indiana QB1 is more of a “game manager” than “game changer.” That alone can dissuade teams like the Raiders from drafting him at 1st overall. Mendoza’s lack of big efficiency moments apart from his Illinois game is cited in that regard. Furthermore, many aren’t even convinced if Mendoza carried an offense like a no.1 overall pick.

“Without a strong resume littered with performances as a game changer, it is hard to project Mendoza as anything more than a high-end game manager as a pro,” Brooks graded Mendoza. Realistically, Fernando Mendoza has a long list of talents: from his elite ball placement, arm strength, and pocket awareness to showing mobility and movement like a world-class QB1. And even with a “game manager” tag, Mendoza can be a game-changer with the right pieces around him. Just like Jared Goff did by becoming a five-time Pro Bowler and making a Super Bowl appearance.