Penn State’s stunning decision to move on from James Franklin has sent shockwaves through college football. After 12 seasons, a 104-45 record, and a College Football Playoff appearance, the Lions are betting that a fresh face can finally break through against the sport’s elite. This was a task that proved insurmountable for Franklin, who lost his final 15 games against teams ranked in the top six. Now, one of the sport’s premier jobs is open. The rumor mill is spinning furiously, with names like Brian Kelly, Curt Cignetti, and Lane Kiffin all surfacing as potential candidates. 

The betting markets wasted no time putting odds on who’ll replace James Franklin at Penn State, and the results are pretty telling about where this search is headed. Matt Rhule sits at the top of the board with +200 odds, making him the clear favorite to land in Happy Valley. Behind him is a reality check, Bill O’Brien at +300. This is the same guy Franklin replaced back in 2014. If this happens, it would be one of the wildest full-circle moments in college football history. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti checks in at +600. And Ole Miss’s Lane Kiffin (+1000), Duke’s Manny Diaz (+700), and even coaching legend Urban Meyer (+900) round out the realistic candidates. 

Matt Rhule happens to be a Penn State guy through and through. He played as a linebacker for the Nittany Lions back in 1994-1997, so this is definitely his chance to come home. But that’s not all. The homecoming deal is sweetened by his close friendship with Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft. Rhule’s bond with Kraft dates back to their days in Temple, where they masterminded a transformation. That transformation also included a historic 27-19 upset over Penn State in 2015.

When Matt Rhule talks about Kraft, the admiration is obvious. Back in 2023, he didn’t hold back, calling Kraft “one of my best friends” and “a great AD” who was with him during those Temple days. With that kind of history and personal connection, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where Kraft doesn’t at least pick up the phone and make a serious run at bringing his old friend back to Pennsylvania.

Moreover, the case for Matt Rhule being the perfect pick for Penn State goes beyond personal connections. Rhule is a proven program builder. He built Temple’s program from the ground up, taking them from 2-10 in his first season to 10-4 by year three. He then replicated that same magic at Baylor with an 11-3 run in his third season there. And now, the exact same thing is happening at Nebraska as they sit at a 5-1 record. 

But the full picture of Rhule’s fit becomes clear when you look at his career statistically. Rhule’s numbers against top competition are pretty bad, and maybe even worse than Franklin’s. Franklin was fired because he did not convert the big games. But Rhule? 2-23 against ranked opponents. 0-11 against AP Top 10 teams. His last win against a ranked team? That was back in 2016 at Temple, when Barack Obama was still president.

Since leaving Temple, Rhule has dropped 18 straight games against ranked opponents, a streak that’s followed him through Baylor, the NFL, and now Nebraska. Franklin caught heat for going 4-21 against top-10 teams, but at least he won some big games along the way. Nebraska’s losing streak against ranked teams has actually gotten worse under Rhule. They lost again this season against Michigan, which might just be their only ranked game this season.

So, is he the one for Penn State? Depends. Penn State is at a crossroads right now. Matt Rhule might be a program builder, but is that the skill the Nittany Lions need right now? Penn State’s problem has been sustained elite performances against top competition. They’ve always had the talent and the synergy, but they seem to be lacking the mental fortitude. If they hire Rhule, they’ll be betting that his program-building acumen translates to sustainable performances because the statistics are against him.

The Big Ten might be calling Kelly home

Brian Kelly is yet another name that’s been coming up for the job in Happy Valley. That’s the same Brian Kelly who is running things at LSU on a 10-year deal. Kelly has gone 29-11 with the Tigers, which is a good record on paper, but he has also suffered from the same problems that Franklin had.

Sports Illustrated made the argument that Kelly might be a better cultural fit in Happy Valley. Maybe the Midwest, Big Ten grid, and the academic reputation suit Kelly’s personality and coaching style, but it’s all just assumptions in the end.

Kelley and Franklin have been mirror images of each other in terms of achievements. Both have been incredibly successful coaches, but neither of them has figured out how to clear that final bit of a hump and take the team over the line. Swapping Franklin with Kelly might very well produce the same results. Kelly is a proven winner and has built programs from the ground up. But just like Rhule, does Penn State need a program builder? That’s some food for thought.