Nobody ever imagined in their wildest dreams that a five-loss team would be in playoff race, but here we are. Duke, sitting at 7-5, suddenly finds itself in the ACC Championship thanks to the tiebreaker. With that they now share the exact same playoff path as the Big 12 team, the one-loss BYU Cougars. Two teams with different conference backgrounds are now in the same high-pressure situation with one clear mission: win the conference, and you’re in.

SMU’s and Pitt’s losses open the door for Duke to claim the second spot in the ACC Championship game. After winning against Virginia Tech, Virginia grabbed the first Big 12 spot, and Duke will face them. What’s interesting is that despite having a 5-loss season, the combination of tiebreakers favored them. And if Duke wins the ACC title game against Virginia, they might even enter the playoffs. Duke’s 49-32 win against Wake Forest made it happen, as despite not being ranked, Duke reached the ACC title game for the first time since 2013.

This scenario mirrors the same path as BYU in the Big 12 as they celebrate their win against UCF. Interestingly, BYU already secured its spot in the Big 12 title game with Arizona State’s loss to Arizona on Friday night, which automatically sent them in. Even Texas Tech benefited from ASU’s loss and entered the game. Now both will face each other in AT&T Stadium on 6th December. This marks BYU’s first appearance in a Big 12 game since joining the conference. Now, the winner of both games will earn an automatic playoff bid.

But let’s break down how exactly Duke entered the ACC title game.

Despite the win against Pitt and holding the highest playoff spot, Miami missed the ACC title game. Miami’s situation started worsening back in November when they had back-to-back losses against Louisville and SMU, which forced them to rely on other ACC games. Now, Duke’s win and SMU’s loss created a five-way tie at 6-2 in the ACC between Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU, and Pitt.

Now the tied team didn’t share a common set of conference opponents; the ACC used “conference opponent win percentage” as the tiebreaker, and the result? Duke had the toughest schedule and came in with the highest win percentage, so they clearly went in. With Miami and Georgia Tech tying for third in schedule strength, the Hurricanes got the 3rd spot as they went 4-0 against their common opponents, which are Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State, and Pitt.

Here comes in the real question: Will Duke actually get into playoffs after winning the ACC title game?

Duke’s shaky playoff path

After Duke clinched the ACC title game, the conference is staring at a worst-case scenario. Duke has five losses, and some of them are really bad ones, which include UConn, Illinois, and Tulane. Now, even if Duke upsets Virginia and wins the ACC title game, their resume will hold them back from entering the playoffs.

As they might not get ranked high enough to earn one of the guaranteed spots. So, the college football playoff committee only promises playoff berths to the five highest-ranked conference champions, not every power conference champion. That rule creates the mess, as if Duke wins, their rank can be easily lower than G5 programs like James Madison or Tulane. In that case, no ACC team might enter the playoffs this season.

But there are exceptions too, as last year the committee picked SMU over Alabama, and they entered the playoffs despite losing in the title game. But their overall season resume and fewer losses than Bama supported their case, and that might not be the case with Duke. So, now, let’s wait and see what the future ACC holds this season.