No one saw this coming for John Mateer. He was the Heisman favorite with +850 odds per ESPN BET mid-September. Just Tuesday afternoon, his odds stood at +700, tied with another SEC QB per BetMGM. Well, he has knocked off Michigan, outdueled Auburn, and looked every bit like a breakout star. Then, in the cruelest twist of college football fate, a thumb injury sidelined him. And just like that, the tide turned. 

Following the news of Oklahoma QB Mateer’s injury, On3 highlighted the updated BetMGM College Football Heisman Trophy odds on X on September 23. According to the polls after Week 4, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza topped the list with +650 odds, with Oregon’s Dante Moore and Miami’s Carson Beck following in tow with +1200 odds each. Not bad company, but the Hoosiers QB’s resume makes the separation obvious. 

Fernando Mendoza’s case isn’t built on hype but carved in hard numbers. Starting his season in Cal in 2023, he has already racked up 5,687 yards and 44 TDs through two complete seasons and four weeks into 2025 with Curt Cignetti’s squad. The question is, can anyone slow him down before the voters crown him? 

Meanwhile, in Norman, the story couldn’t be more different. The Sooners are on a bye week before facing Kent State on October 4, but all eyes are fixed on October 11, the Red River Rivalry. That game against Texas was supposed to be Mateer’s Heisman moment, a head-to-head duel with preseason favorite Arch Manning on one of the sport’s grandest stages. Instead, his availability is now in serious doubt. That uncertainty hit his odds like a sack fumble. 

Just days ago, Mateer was sitting alongside Fernando Mendoza at +700. Post-injury, he plummeted to +2200, tumbling out of the top ten entirely. In his case, one ill-timed injury might erase what looked like a storybook run. According to a CFB insider’s injury report via SoonerScoop, “John Mateer will have thumb surgery and could miss 3 weeks or more.” It’s the cruelest truth of college football. Momentum doesn’t wait for you to heal. Just when it seemed the Heisman dreams were slipping through his fingers, a small window of optimism began to emerge in Norman.

A glimmer of hope for John Mateer’s fans

Oklahoma isn’t giving up yet. On3’s Pete Nakos reported that there’s still “some hope” John Mateer could return in time for the Red River Rivalry against Texas. If that happens, he would miss only the Kent State tune-up on October 4, preserving the possibility of a Heisman-defining moment on one of college football’s grandest stages. For a QB who already threw for an OU-debut record 392 yards in Week 1 and leads the SEC in passing with 1,215 yards, this could be a second act the voters didn’t see coming.

Even more tantalizing is Mateer’s performance against Auburn. It showed he thrives under pressure, even when injured. He led a fourth-quarter game-winning drive capped by a gutsy nine-yard touchdown run, proving that Heisman moments are about resilience and timing. If he can take the field against Texas, even at less than 100%, that narrative might shift voters’ minds back in his favor. CFB loves a comeback, and he could still write one of the season’s most compelling chapters.

So here we are, one QB’s rise fueled by stats and spotlight, another’s fall dictated by the harsh math of injuries. The Heisman is about availability. And right now, Fernando Mendoza has both. But will this narrative hold when November pressure arrives? That’s the drama voters and fans live for.