Just when we thought that our final 12 for the playoffs were almost locked, Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama has thrown the SEC race wide open. Texas’ defeat to Georgia likely ends its postseason push, but there are a lot more colleges whose chances open up now. With playoff implications woven into nearly every game, the margin for error is shrinking fast as Week 13 comes into focus.

Predicting AP Top 25 after Week 12

Let’s dive into how the AP Top 25 will look once the Sunday morning votes are in.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

Result: 48-10 win vs UCLA

The Buckeyes are the most unanimous number 1 team in the country since Oregon in 2024. One may argue about the other two unbeaten colleges, but the sheer dominance and margin of victories put Ryan Day & co. on top. The recent injury scare around Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will certainly be a worry. From here, the Buckeyes host Rutgers before closing the regular season with a ranked road test against Michigan.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Result: 31-7 win vs Wisconsin

Just an average Indiana football display in week 12. Mendoza threw for 300 yards, and the defense only allowed one touchdown. While they have somehow managed to score less than their PPG, the margin of victory will give them enough confidence to reach the B1G Championship game unbeaten.

As for Fernando Mendoza, the standard hasn’t slipped one bit. The quarterback delivered another standout outing, throwing for 299 yards and helping keep the Hoosiers locked in at No. 2 in the rankings.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0)

Result: 31-30 win vs South Carolina

Hard to make a judgment out of this result. Alarm bells, considering how they nearly lost to a woeful South Carolina team. Or another green flag, knowing that they managed to come back on a rather off day? Marcel Reed certainly didn’t make it easy on himself with a pair of interceptions, but he made up for it in a big way, piling up 439 passing yards and three touchdowns to carry the Aggies through. At the end of the day, they are 10-0 and quite certainly booked a playoff spot.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)

Result: 35-10 win vs Texas

In a season full of cagey wins, the Bulldogs have dismantled Sarkisian & co. They finish the SEC season with just one loss, but will need Alabama or TAMU to lose Week 14 games to play the championship game. QB Gunner Stockton accounted for five total touchdowns, reinforcing Georgia’s standing in the playoff conversation. Even if they miss the SEC Championship berth, taking care of business against Charlotte and Georgia Tech should be enough to lock them into the postseason.

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

Result: 48-9 win vs UCF

Texas Tech had the committee’s backing even before the BYU game. Since then, they have recorded two massive conference victories, which will be hard to keep them out of the top 5. Alabama’s loss will only help them further once the new top 25 is out.

6. Ole Miss (10-1)

Result: 34-24 win vs Florida

Lane Kiffin is one step away from making the playoffs. A potential 11-1 season after Jaxson Dart’s departure is beyond anyone’s expectations. The defense remains a concern, but as long as they are managing to outscore the opponents, they will keep racking up wins.

7. Oregon Ducks (8-1)

Result: 42-13 win vs Minnesota

The Ducks were lacking margin in their victories in the last few weeks. So, Dante Moore’s 300-yard performance will do Dan Lanning’s confidence a world of good. They haven’t really shown any major weakness this week, but games against USC & Washington are bound to be tricky.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

Result: 23-21 win vs Alabama

Surely, Venables’ best win since moving to the SEC. Despite a rather average outing from Mateer, the Sooners’ defense stepped up and snatched a win at Saban Field. The odds are now in favor of the Sooners to make the playoffs. Even the CFP Committee Chair is in their favor and is willing to look past their Texas loss.

9. Alabama (8-2)

Result: 21-23 loss vs Oklahoma

Alabama hasn’t looked its best lately, and today the team paid the price. The offense has somewhat stagnated, and DeBoer can sense some pressure already. From natty shouts, they find themselves at the brink of playoff exit, but a winout from here will get them through.

Oklahoma’s defense used Ty Simpson’s inconsistency to its advantage. An untimely interception and a string of off-target throws on crucial downs kept the Tide from sustaining drives. To stay alive in the playoff chase, the Tide can’t afford another slip-up the rest of the way.

10. Notre Dame (8-2)

Result: 37-15 win vs Pitt

CJ Carr led his team to a comfortable win, but how are they gonna lose a ranking spot? Sadly for Freeman, Sooners registered their best win in years, and a 2-loss SEC team will always be favored over a 2-loss Notre Dame.

11. BYU (9-1)

Result: 44-13 win vs. TCU

BYU will benefit from Texas’s blowout loss. However, they will need to be in the top 10 to secure a playoff spot, as ACC & G5 spots are going to occupy #11 and #12.

12. Utah Utes (8-2)

Result: 55-28 win vs Baylor

It was quite surprising when the committee ranked a 2-loss Big 12 team over Vanderbilt. However, Utah’s only 1-point loss to BYU could’ve played a part there. Moreover, a blowout win over Baylor will surely strengthen voters’ belief in Kyle Whittingham.

13. Texas Longhorns (7-3)

Result: 10-35 loss vs Georgia

Surprised to see a 3-loss team in the top 13, especially after a 25-point loss? Strength of schedule remains in Texas’ favor with two losses coming against the top 5. A top 10 win against OU will also ensure that Arch Manning & Co. don’t fall much behind. 

14. Vanderbilt (8-2)

Result: bye

Vanderbilt will most likely remain #14 at the end of week 12. Their loss to Texas might hold them back in the rankings, as the strength of schedule plays a major part.

15. Miami Hurricanes (8-2)

Result: 41-7 win vs NC State

Miami once again started to look like its old self. The team that was receiving Natty shouts was not up until last month. However, enough damage was done during that period, as #15 is the best they can afford right now.

16. USC Trojans (8-2)

Result: 26-21 win vs Iowa

USC keeps finding a way to win these coin toss conference games. While the Illinois loss will hurt their ranking, they have done a good enough job to inch closer to the playoffs. The final showdown against Oregon will certainly be one for the ages, with the playoff picture in mind.

17. Georgia Tech (9-1)

Result: 36-34 win vs Boston

Georgia Tech may have saved its season with Aidan Birr’s field goal when only 11 seconds remained in the game. A loss to a 1-win program would have been a disaster. They will still lose a ranking spot, as USC at the same time recorded a ranked win. However, the path is now clear for Brent Key – win the ACC Championship game and make the playoffs.

18. Michigan (8-2)

Result: 24-22 vs Northwestern

Similar to Georgia Tech, a last-second field goal saved Michigan’s season. However, their paths to the playoffs are not quite simple. For that, they will have to 5-peat Ohio State and make a final-day push for a top 12 spot.

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19. Virginia (9-2)

Result: 34-17 win vs Duke

Virginia has pretty much sealed their spot at the conference championship game. Despite two poor losses, their streak of cagey wins has put them in a very good spot for the playoffs. However, for that, they must win the ACC.

20. James Madison (9-1)

Result: 58-10 win vs App. State

As things stand, JMU is the favorite to take the G5 playoff spot. The unbeaten conference record and a 48-point week 12 win will surely influence the voters.

21. Tennessee (7-3)

Result: 42-9 win vs NM State

Joey Aguilar was quite frustrated with his performance post-game. Despite two interceptions, there were plenty of positive takeaways for the Vols. The playoff picture might look bleak now, but they can still end the season with 9 wins.

22. Navy (8-2)

Result: 41-38 win vs USF

Navy’s season has seen plenty of highs and lows, but the narrow win over USF strengthens their case as a legitimate playoff contender. A Top 25 spot appears well within reach heading into the next week.

23. North Texas (9-1)

Result: 53-24 win vs UAB

North Texas showed no mercy to UAB. The committee has reached the stage where they will eliminate the multiple-loss P4 schools and put a few G5 schools into playoff consideration for the last spot.

24. Missouri (7-3)

Result: 49-27 win vs Mississippi State

Missouri’s playoff hopes were over after Beau Pribula’s injury and the third loss. But, an 8+ win season and a top 25 spot will give Drinkwitz & co. plenty of motivation for the upcoming year.

25. Tulane (8-2)

Result: 35-24 win vs Florida Atlantic

Tulane will take up the last G5 spot in this week’s rankings. While the eventual playoff spot will depend on conference winners, Tulane will be among the top 4 shortlisted from G5.

That’s a wrap on our Week 12 predictions. With so much movement still ahead, which team do you see moving most confidently toward the playoff bracket?