Going undefeated in the ACC in 2023, snagging the conference title with a 13-1 record, and still getting snubbed from the playoffs had to sting. But then to crash down to just two wins the very next season? That’s a whole new level of ouch! And no one knows it better than Mike Norvell. Well, the worst part is now that they are heading into a new season, doubts and setbacks are the only things that remain constant.

Even on Crain & Company, FSU alum Danny Kanell voiced serious concerns about their future, saying, “How I feel about their roster—I don’t know. And I think a lot of people are in that same boat. How good is this roster? How good could it be—or, potentially, how bad could it be? It depends on your perspective.” And honestly, what else would you expect after such a disastrous season?

Just a year ago, FSU fans were borderline arrogant—and for good reason. They ran the table in the regular season, beat Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, and still got snubbed by the CFP committee after quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury. Kanell admitted what many Noles fans are still quietly thinking. “I think Florida State fans are a bit shellshocked because… we got a little bit chesty after the undefeated season, you know? And it was like, ‘Hey, we deserved a shot.’ And I still believe that. I still wonder what would’ve happened had we been given a shot.”

He even reflected on the “what if” scenario that haunts the FSU faithful: “With Jordan Travis just announcing he’s retiring from the sport of football, it kind of brought up a discussion of what would’ve happened had he not gotten hurt? I think they would have gotten in. I think they potentially could have challenged for a national championship.” But after being denied that shot, things unraveled fast.

After the playoff snub, a wave of opt-outs hit the roster ahead of the Orange Bowl. Several key players decided to sit out against Georgia, and what followed was a beatdown that exposed deeper issues within the locker room. “I think you started to see the start of a little bit of a culture issue creep in,” Kanell said. “Where a lot of the players opted out. They said, ‘We’re out. We’re going to go on.'”

And that drama didn’t end there. As FSU limped into 2024, the belief that the program would rebound quickly was shattered in their very first game. “Then the Georgia Tech game happens. And it was all downhill after that first drive,” Kanell recalled. “On the first drive of the game, they marched right down the field. And Florida State fans are cocky, thinking, ‘Oh, we’re going to be right back in the playoff.’ And then, of course, we know now—it was anything but.”

That 24-21 loss set the tone for a disastrous season, with a depleted roster and deflated energy. Seven NFL declarations had already hit the depth chart in 2023, and by 2024, it was clear the team was thin, disjointed, and lacking identity.

To his credit, Norvell didn’t sit on his hands. He brought in former Auburn and UCF coach Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator for 2025. The quarterback room was revamped, led by Boston College dual-threat transfer Tommy Castellanos, with redshirt sophomore Brock Glenn and speedy freshman Kevin Sperry—an ex-Oklahoma commit—fighting for reps.

But as Kanell put it bluntly: “When you lose at home to schools like Memphis, you can’t chalk up any W’s in the win column—it’s just automatics.” Florida State could end up winning 10 games or just 4. That’s how unpredictable the situation is right now.

Mike Norvell’s $63 million safety net

Under normal circumstances, a 2-10 season would put any coach’s seat on fire. But here’s where things get sticky: Mike Norvell’s $63 million buyout is basically an impenetrable shield.

After the undefeated 2023 season, FSU AD Michael Alford went into panic mode. With Alabama sniffing around following Nick Saban’s retirement, Norvell was one of three rumored finalists for the Tide job—alongside Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer. FSU didn’t want to risk losing him. So Alford made a huge move: a $10 million per year deal through 2031, locking Norvell in long-term.

While Norvell later agreed to contribute $4.5 million toward FSU’s new facilities and NIL initiatives—technically lowering his 2025 salary to $9.9 million—the contract still includes up to $1.5 million per year in bonuses. A guaranteed 85% payout of the remaining contract if fired. And protection that now works against FSU more than for them. So even if they wanted to fire him, they’d owe over $50 million, minimum. And with a $300 million stadium project underway and $20+ million tied up annually in NIL/player salaries, there’s simply no room to eat that kind of loss.

As Kanell pointed out: “Florida State is not in a situation like Texas A&M where they can just cut a check for 67–68 million dollars. It would be a little bit less than that, but I still think it’s over $50 million that Mike Norvell would be owed if it’s another rough season. He’s under a hot seat from the perspective, he’ll take even more heat the following year, but I don’t think he’s going anywhere.” He isn’t going anywhere, not because he’s untouchable on merit—but because he’s too expensive to fail.

So, here we are. A program once on the brink of playoff greatness is now in a bind, with a thin roster, skeptical fans, and a coach who can’t be fired—unless someone wins the lottery. Yes, there’s hope with a new OC and promising QBs, but FSU is walking on a tightrope. Another bad season won’t just embarrass the program—it could freeze their rebuild altogether. For now, Mike Norvell owns the biggest coaching contract in the ACC. But with it comes the biggest spotlight, the biggest pressure, and the biggest gamble.