Fall camp has officially kicked off in Tuscaloosa and here we are, still not 100% on who the QB1 will be. It’s almost certain, Ty Simpson, Alabama’s spring favorite, holds the starting job. But OC Ryan Grubb isn’t quite ready to roll all-in. Asked about the QB decision on Day 2, he said, “Yesterday, if I’m being honest.” So why the cagey dance around the starter? Is it a lack of certainty? Is it a strategy? 

Maybe Ty Simpson still hasn’t convinced everyone that he’s the guy. He sat behind Jalen Milroe for two seasons and didn’t really get much reps in 2024. Last year, he completed 14-of-25 passes for 167 yards. Across three seasons, he only has 381 yards under his name and zero TDs. That tells a lot about preparedness. And maybe that’s exactly why this legendary Fox Sports analyst isn’t high on Alabama entering the 2025 season.

When play-by-play broadcaster Tim Brando hopped on an episode on Crain & Company on August 1, he made sure to give the company reasons to raise their eyebrows. Alabama isn’t included in his 12-team playoff list. He dropped them to No. 14 in his preseason Top-15 even behind Boise State that’s now without their star RB Ashton Jeanty. The reason is the QB play. “I don’t think that Simpson is so bad. I just think he’s not good enough yet,” he said. And that “not yet” could be Alabama’s undoing in a 12-team playoff world that demands results early. 

Tim Brando nailed saying, “There was a time when a serviceable game managing quarterback could get you to the promised land in college football… You can’t have that kind of quarterback to win a national championship anymore.” He even invoked Notre Dame’s Tony Rice as an example of a QB archetype that no longer cuts it. And he’s not alone in this thinking. Kalen DeBoer, despite being an offensive savant, enters his second fall camp still starting a QB he didn’t recruit. That’s not ideal. Both Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are his guys, but neither looks ready to leapfrog Ty Simpson yet. And if Simpson were truly the guy, should he still be competing for the job in August?

Tim Brando isn’t writing off Alabama entirely. “It’s not that the program is in awful shape,” he said. “It’s just you can’t get back there with mediocre to subpar play at the quarterback position.” So, he’s placing them well outside playoff contention in his Top 15 showing how low his confidence is in the projected QB1’s ability to command an offense worthy of a College Football Playoff bid. There’s no way around it. Year Two of the Kalen DeBoer era has to be better than Year One. A couple of questionable losses torpedoed a promising season and kept Alabama out of the CFP in the first year of the post-Saban world. Now, the defense looks elite again, the skill guys are stacked. But the quarterback is still a glaring question mark. And here’s where the story flips. 

Brent Venables’ hot seat heats up with playoff hopes

Tim Brando didn’t just bump Alabama out of the CFP picture. He replaced them with Oklahoma. The same team led by Brent Venables, who is on a very hot seat. On3’s Ari Wasserman has him at No. 2 in his coaching hot seat rankings, trailing only Florida’s Billy Napier. He’s one of just two OU coaches in the last century to have multiple losing seasons. The other was John Blake, who got fired after three years. So, yes, stakes are sky-high. So how does a guy in that much trouble make the playoffs?

Give the credit to Oklahoma’s new QB John Mateer. The former Washington State dual-threat stud passed for 3,139 yards and ran for 826 more in 2024. Add 44 total touchdowns, and you’ve got a QB who can actually carry a playoff-caliber offense. “He should be a Heisman finalist if he stays healthy,” Tim Brando said with confidence. And he didn’t come alone. The Sooners also brought in his OC from Washington State, Ben Arbuckle, who knows how to tailor the offense to his strengths. The chemistry is instant, and it’s clear the QB has already won over his new locker room.

“This is a guy that wants to win at the highest level,” Brent Venables said. “A connector. A guy that leads from the front. As he plays the game, he looks like he’s in fast forward a lot of times. A great competitor. Super athletic.” That’s the kind of energy Tim Brando buys into. Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU. “I would argue that if both Alabama and Oklahoma had three losses, and especially if Oklahoma delivered one of those losses to Alabama, and I think they can, and I think they will, then you take Oklahoma over Alabama if they have similar records,” the analyst added. The pick might sound spicy, but it’s rooted in cold, quarterback truth. He’s not saying Alabama’s doomed forever. But in 2025, with this QB room, in this SEC, the Tide doesn’t have the margin for error it once did.