Texas was hoping to write its national title chapter with Arch Manning. Instead, it ended without a playoff berth. The 21-year-old has announced his return to Texas for the next season. Is it the right call? A FOX Sports 1 host thinks otherwise.

“Now, Arch Manning is going to return to college football. I am surprised that he didn’t go into the portal,” said Craig Carton on his December 20 show. “I think he’s very smart to come back for one more year of college football. I’d want to go to a QB-friendly offense like Miami or like LSU, where I’m going to have a chance to shine,” he added.

Arch had a mixed bag of a season in his first year as a starter. The Longhorns’ QB1 struggled initially but finished strong. He tormented Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, but was poor in the losses to Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia. It also didn’t help that Steve Sarkisian couldn’t generate consistent O-line play, which meant that Manning was fighting for his life to make plays throughout the year.

Before the season started, Manning was touted as at least a top-five draft pick in the 2026 NFL draft. However, Arch’s draft has now shaken, and a first-round pick is no longer guaranteed. The urge to return and bolster that stock, and perhaps win a Heisman, seems natural. But will the offense by any better next year?

“He’s a young man who’s gotten better as the season’s gone on, and not only physically, but mentally, maturity-wise,” said Steve Sarkisian of Arch’s decision to return. “I would think he’s going to want another year of that growth to put himself in a position for hopefully a long career in the NFL. And he’s got some unfinished business of what he came here to do and what he came here to accomplish.”

Texas ranks 67th nationally in sacks allowed, giving up 23 sacks in total. In tackles for loss, the team’s performance has been woeful, ranked 104th nationally. Additionally, Texas regularly experienced situational failures, ranging from poor third-down conversions to red-zone inefficiency, and the rushing offense didn’t provide Arch with any breathing room.

The Longhorns managed to rush for just 1,556 yards, ranked 101st nationally. Factor in Steve Sarkisian’s inconsistent playcalling, and switching camps seems a plausible option for the Texas QB1. Now, compare this with Lane Kiffin’s offense.

Will Lane Kiffin take Arch Manning for his offense?

Lane Kiffin is now the head coach for LSU, having accepted a whopping $91 million contract. Notably, Kiffin was the architect of Ole Miss’s explosive offense. The same offense that produced Jaxson Dart in 2024 and this year earned a playoff berth in 2025. Ole Miss is still ranked 2nd nationally in total offense and has the 3rd-ranked passing offense.

For now, though, it’s expected that Lane Kiffin is eyeing Florida QB1 DJ Lagway. “The rumor was that Lane’s in love with DJ Lagway. The big Florida quarterback, who has better tools than Arch but who’s not a better player on the field,” said Craig Carton.

DJ Lagway has announced his intention to enter the transfer portal, and Lane Kiffin is expected to look to grab him at the first opportunity when the portal opens on January 2.

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All in all, there’s still time for Arch Manning to rethink his decision. However, with the new landscape of college football, players are often locked into revenue-sharing contracts, which can complicate things. That said, staying in Texas also can work, considering we saw some improvement with the offense later in the season.

“I could feel early in the season that we weren’t very mature yet offensively,” said Steve Sarkisian. “Where he (Arch Manning) is today is not where he was a month ago. We’re a lot more mature on the offensive line. We’re a lot more mature at running back with (Wisner) and Cedric (Baxter) back.”

Arch is currently a redshirt sophomore and still has two more seasons of eligibility left. We can also see him playing for the full two years, just like his uncles Eli and Peyton Manning did. It’s a trajectory worth following as the 21-year-old tiptoes his way to the NFL.