FOX’s Joel Klatt expected Matt Campbell to maintain a high floor at Penn State after taking over for James Franklin. Campbell had already built Iowa State into a respected Big 12 program, so Klatt believed the transition to Happy Valley would give the Nittany Lions stability while also helping them finally take the next step. Unfortunately, Penn State has quickly gone in the opposite direction.

After starting the season 3-0, the Nittany Lions dropped a 24-20 game to Wisconsin after blowing a 17-point lead, before Northwestern followed it up with a 34-13 rout. Penn State is now 3-2 overall and 0-2 in Big Ten play. That recent stretch is exactly why Klatt believes his initial expectation for Matt Campbell has been wrong.

“Coming from Iowa State and the program that he had built at Iowa State, we thought that the retention of what James had built and a guy like Matt Campbell, that the floor would remain high,” Joel Klatt said on his namesake podcast during the Coach Progress Report segment. “And here’s the problem: that floor is way lower. And the last two weeks, it has gotten bad for Penn State.”

The former Iowa State coach was hired to win the big games in the Big Ten, but the Nittany Lions have struggled just to maintain control against conference opponents. The Northwestern loss was especially alarming, with Penn State giving up 506 total yards and getting completely overwhelmed on the ground. The Wildcats rushed for 413 yards, while Penn State managed only 48 rushing yards of its own.

Penn State had allowed just 7.33 points and 201 total yards per game through its first three games, but the defense has fallen apart against Big Ten competition. Northwestern’s 413 rushing yards were the fourth-most Penn State has ever allowed in a game, according to the program’s records.

For Klatt, though, this is bigger than simply two bad losses. He sees Penn State as a warning for USC, another program that has been talking about whether a coaching change is needed to reach the next level. His point is that Penn State was in a similar position with Franklin.

The Nittany Lions wanted to move beyond being consistently good and win the biggest games, so they made the change and brought in Campbell. But instead of immediately raising the ceiling while preserving the floor, the program has suddenly seen that floor drop.

That is what makes the situation so uncomfortable for Penn State. Campbell is not being judged as a bad coach, and Klatt made that distinction clear. The concern is that the program does not look like the stable team many expected it to be under a coach who had spent years building Iowa State into a consistent contender for the Big 12.

Campbell himself acknowledged this week that Penn State lacks the identity it wants and said the team has failed to play in rhythm across all three phases during the last six quarters.

The $70.5 million commitment only adds to the pressure. Penn State gave Campbell an eight-year, fully guaranteed deal worth $70.5 million, showing that the school believed he was the coach capable of taking the program where Franklin could not. But Klatt believes Penn State may have underestimated how much rebuilding Campbell would actually have to do.

The roster has not immediately looked like the kind of team capable of consistently competing at the top of the Big Ten, and the problems against Northwestern exposed just how much work remains.

And that brings Klatt back to the decision Penn State made with Franklin. The program had become frustrated with being good without reaching the ultimate level, but Klatt believes that is not necessarily a reason to make a change unless the replacement actually makes the program better.

“We forgot that James Franklin, how successful he was. I think people were just kind of tired of it and like, ‘We’ve got to change.’ You never change for change’s sake. You only change to be better in life and in college football,” Klatt said.

For now, his verdict on Campbell is that Penn State’s progress report is below expectations, and the next few weeks will show whether this is simply an early stumble or evidence that the Nittany Lions really are facing a much bigger rebuild than anyone expected.