Florida State pulled the plug on athletic director Michael Alford on Monday, September 14, and the spotlight immediately shifted to head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles opened their season beating New Mexico State, but a painful 27-24 home loss to SMU on Labor Day night had angry fans chanting “Fire Norvell” as they exited Doak Campbell Stadium. With the athletic director already out the door, everyone in Tallahassee is asking the same question: Is the head coach next?

While firing Alford will not cost a heavy sum like $130M, moving on from Norvell would be a different ballgame. Contract analysts are estimating a hefty sum of $130M for FSU to make a coaching change if they fire Norvell. He signed an eight-year, $84M extension in 2024 that runs through 2031, paying him $10.3M this season with a built-in raise every year. If FSU cuts him off without cause, they are also required to compensate him for 85% of what is left on that deal.

Big buyouts are nothing new in Tallahassee, but the scale of this one is completely unprecedented. Back in 2019, Florida State made headlines when they fired head coach Willie Taggart just 21 games into his deal. That decision cost the school about $18 million in buyout money, which was a massive number at the time and took years to fully settle. But if FSU cuts Norvell loose now, that old $18 million check will look like pocket change compared to what lies ahead.

“To play devil’s advocate on that idea really quickly, just to do the math – a little bit of napkin math for what Florida State would need to hire a top-tier coach: talking about a $50 million buyout essentially at the end of the season,” Chris Hummer said, per X post of CBS Sports’s Emily Proud. “Then you’re talking about if you get a $10 million-a-year head coach, let’s say over five years, you’re talking about another $50 million up front. So you’re talking about $100 million just to fire Mike Norvell and hire a new coach.”

“$10 million for a staff, and then an extra, I would say, $20 million for the roster because Florida State’s roster is much lower in terms of cost, around $20 million, than people think. That’s about $130 million up front just to move on from Mike Norvell if you’re going to get a $10 million-a-year head coach.”

Hummer did not rule out the HC change, as he believes FSU could make it work. But also raised concerns regarding such a commitment that involves a heavy sum, as the current Florida State books carry $437M in athletics debt. The reported debt was one of the major reasons for Alford’s being out of his position. He had been resistant to spending above the new revenue-share cap, and that did not sit well with the administrators and boosters.

However, despite the speculations regarding Norvell getting fired, FSU President Richard McCullough had made his stance on Norvell clear during a press conference on September 14.

“I love Mike Norvell, he’s a great human being,” McCullough said, via Warchant. “Nobody wants to win more than Mike Norvell. College coaches are in the winning business. That’s what we’re working on.”

That doesn’t sound like a president preparing to fire his coach. He further praised Norvell’s work away from the field, including the program’s academic results and the way he develops his players. With McCullough’s backing, an immediate firing does not appear to be on the cards.

The next weeks could be the deciding factor in Norvell’s future with Florida State, as they play against Alabama on September 19, before getting into a tough ACC stretch against Virginia, Louisville, and Miami. If the losses keep coming, the conversation around his future will only get louder, and the $130M decision will become something the FSU could not avoid.