There are times where coaches jump ship faster than a QB under blitz pressure. But Jason Candle is an outlier. For nearly a decade, he’s been the steady hand guiding Toledo Rockets through the chaos of the “MACtion” that hasn’t exactly been the shining jewel among conferences.. Despite the MAC’s reputation and the Rockets’ limited national spotlight, Candle’s still here from 2016. Still winning, and still turning down opportunities that most G5 coaches would sprint towards.

The Athletic put out the fourth installment in its rankings of head coaches. The coaches of the FBS are classified into 8 tiers based on résumé, resources, and more. Jason finds himself in Tier 5. He may be in the middle of the pack here, but there is pleasant surprise expressed regarding his tenure at Toledo. The surprise isn’t just about longevity. In an era where ambitious Group of 5 coaches often use their success as a launchpad to Power 5 jobs, Toledo’s Jason Candle has quietly built one of the steadiest programs in the country and chosen to keep the engine running in northwest Ohio.

“He does a really good job, I’m surprised he’s still there,” one Group of 5 head coach said of Candle. That remark lands heavier when you look at the numbers he has put up. 8 bowl trips in 10 seasons, and the kind of sustained winning that turns heads every December when the coaching carousel spins.

The current College Football Playoff format hands the Group of 5 one automatic bid for the highest-ranked conference champion. That means, at least technically, every team in the American, MAC, Conference USA, and Mountain West has a ticket stub to dream about. Come 2026, the Pac-12’s expansion will morph that into a Group of 6 scenario, but the math doesn’t change much. It’s still a knife fight for that single golden ticket. Of the Group of 5 programs drawing preseason buzz, Toledo might just be the one holding the cleanest map to the CFP.

The Rockets’ case starts with consistency. Since 2010, Toledo has strung together 15 straight non-losing seasons, including a 6-6 campaign in 2019 that felt more like a reset than a step back. That kind of baseline stability is rare in the MAC, a league better known for midweek chaos than postseason glory. In fact, the conference as a whole has been a national afterthought in the BCS and CFP eras, producing just two major bowl appearances. Both losses. And yet, Toledo remains the MAC’s best bet. A team that’s both battle-tested and unafraid of the national stage.

For the Rockets to crash the playoff party, it’s about stacking wins early and letting the chips fall elsewhere. Their 2025 schedule opens with a trip to Lexington to face Kentucky. The kind of nonconference litmus test that can make or break perception before the leaves change. Pull off that upset, then roll through the MAC with minimal stumbles, and Toledo can start scoreboard-watching every Saturday. They’ll need some chaos in the Group of 5 pecking order. A Tulane slip here, a Boise State loss there. But the door is more open than it looks. With a returning core that knows how to win close games, Candle’s crew has the tools to make noise.

That’s where Jason Candle’s decision to stay put matters most. The continuity in his program means player development doesn’t reset every two years. Systems stay in place. Recruiting pipelines remain warm.

Jason Candle in Vegas dreamland

Perennial favorite Toledo sits right where oddsmakers expected. On top of the MAC betting board, with defending champion Ohio chasing from the second line. Buffalo, Miami (Ohio), and Bowling Green are the only other programs with single-digit odds. But this is the MAC, where chaos is tradition and “expect the unexpected” should be printed on the conference logo. Per NY Post Betting, Toledo is +250 to win the title, and it’s hard to picture anyone mounting a convincing argument against the Rockets being the team to beat.

Last season was no smooth flight. The Rockets’ 8-5 record in 2024 felt like turbulence in an otherwise steady era under Jason Candle, who now enters his 10th year at the Glass Bowl. They had signature wins over Mississippi State and Pitt on one hand. But then had losses to Akron, Ohio, and Bowling Green on the other.

The fix? Candle’s crew shored up its offensive line. A sore spot a year ago. They also return a veteran-heavy passing attack with enough experience to make defensive coordinators sweat. Add in the gift of the MAC’s softest schedule and you’ve got a recipe that could keep Toledo’s CFP hopes alive deep into November.