Penn State is very much locked in on Matt Campbell as of now. Multiple reports say Pat Kraft finally zeroed in on the Iowa State coach after striking out on earlier “splash” targets and dragging this thing past 50 days. But it’s not all roses. There have been some major doubts about whether he can truly elevate a blue-blood program like Penn State beyond solid seasons.

“Love what Matt Campbell has done at Iowa State, and he would be the best-case scenario at this point (for an outside hire),” National college football analyst and PSU alum Landon Tangwell posted on X before raising serious questions on the 46-year-old. “The biggest question is how he would manage the roster? He could probably bring 10-15 players with him (Cignetti brought 13 players from JMU). Would he bring his Iowa State 2026 commits? Probably, but looking at their rankings, the talent is lacking.

The highest-rated commit in Iowa State’s recruiting class is 463rd in the nation, and 11 of the 21 commits are ranked below 1000 nationally. To put that in perspective, since 2016 Penn State has only taken TWO commits that were ranked below 1000 nationally.”

The Cyclones’ 2026 class is tracking as the highest-ranked of his tenure, sitting at 49th position, and even nudging into top-30 territory on some outlets. However, Iowa State’s 2026 class splash? It’s more like a puddle next to Penn State’s talent pool. Their top commit clocks in at No. 463 nationally on On3, a gritty wideout like Jeffrey Roberts from Dowling Catholic. Dig deeper, and 11 of 21 signees rank below 1000. For example, Elijah Reeder (NJ edge rusher) or JUCO gem Jeremy Lewis.

Now, if we compare that with Penn State, they have just two sub-1000 national commits in a decade of stacking four- and five-stars like Micah Parsons (No. 4 overall in ’18) or Nicholas Singleton (top-50 RB). Now that Campbell is almost set to jump ship, will the entire talent follow him to Happy Valley? There is a reason for this urgency. Penn State only signed two recruits on Signing Day after losing a ton of commits. A lot of them bailed on following James Franklin to Virginia Tech. Ironically, Franklin had already assembled a good squad at Blacksburg within a week of his appointment.

Before he arrived, the Hokies’ recruiting class sat all the way down at No. 124 nationally when Franklin was hired in November 2025. But once he started flipping commits from other schools, he shot the class all the way up to No. 22. On top of that, Franklin immediately brought over some of his most trusted off-field people, including GM Andy Frank, from Penn State to Virginia Tech. That tight-knit crew helped streamline the whole recruiting grind. It’s something Matt Campbell couldn’t do in years at ISU.

Why? There wasn’t a great recruiting hotbed anywhere close by, and finding the kind of speed needed to keep up with teams like Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma was no easy task. However, he made it a little better with the 2026 class. That’s why rebuilding the recruiting class and hitting the transfer portal hard when it opens on Jan. 2 would be two of Campbell’s biggest to-dos the moment he gets to town.

Penn State front office taking people for granted

There is a reason for Penn State’s change of direction in its coaching search. Even after numerous cases of making Terry Smith the permanent one, PSU didn’t act on it. That’s why Smith is now getting some love from programs that can sincerely change PSU’s future. And why wouldn’t he? After James Franklin, Smith stepped up as interim head coach and delivered three straight wins. Fans loved it and want the administration to appoint him immediately.

But Penn State’s brass is dragging its feet past 50 days. That’s when rival programs started hovering around the 56-year-old. UConn, fresh off losing Jim Mora to Colorado State after back-to-back nine-win seasons, is sniffing around hard. NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported Smith’s getting “significant interest” for the Huskies gig, alongside Memphis. Even Arkansas, which just nabbed Ryan Silverfield (50-24 record in six years), has him on the radar.

There is a reason for so much demand. Since joining Penn State in 2014 as corners coach, he’s been the Big Ten’s No. 4 recruiter in 2023, landing 12 straight top-25 classes like the elite 2018 and 2022 hauls. He’s developed seven NFL Draft corners, tying the national lead. Even Micah Parsons said, “If we have any common sense, they’d better put Terry there.” Yet Penn State’s chasing splashier names like Packers DC Jeff Hafley or even fired Giants HC Brian Daboll. And now the latest interest is in Campbell.

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