After a hard-fought overtime victory in the ACC championship, Duke now has at least a faint argument for earning a spot in the 12-team playoff field. That raises an obvious question: how could a team with five losses fit into the bracket? It remains a long shot. But it’s also HC Manny Diaz’s only realistic path to justifying the significant investment in the program made in its star quarterback, Darian Mensah.

Duke brought in transfer quarterback Darian Mensah this season on an NIL deal reportedly worth up to $8 million over two years. But what if you can recoup that money, and your only way is to enter the playoffs? One would never let go of that chance, right?

A conference earns $6 million for each team that reaches a Playoff Semifinal and each team that makes the national championship game. That money is then split evenly among the conference schools. So if Duke somehow sneaks into the playoffs, the ACC would bring in $4 million and hand it over to Duke. That alone would cover a big chunk of the first payment the school invested in Mensah this season. And if Duke managed to advance to the quarterfinals, they’d bring in another $4 million. So that’s a full-fledged refund.

Even if Duke is unable to enter the playoffs, the investment in Darian Mensah has sincerely paid off. The QB emerged as one of the nation’s standout players and led Duke to its first outright ACC Championship since 1962. As the team’s top offensive weapon, he set a new single-season school record with 30 passing touchdowns and threw for 3,646 yards. It places him in the national top ten in several major categories: #4 in passing yards, #3 in completions, and #5 in touchdowns.

On paper, Manny Diaz’s side didn’t need a quarterback after a nine-win season. But the staff saw Mensah as the piece that could push them from “solid” to genuinely competing for ACC titles and New Year’s Six relevance. That’s exactly what happened. After the regular-season loss to Virginia on November 16, Mensah came into the rematch in full revenge mode. Duke’s 27–20 win over 17th-ranked UVA brought huge relief to the Blue Devils.

Mensah completed 19 of 25 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning score in overtime. The 20-year-old capped it off by earning ACC Championship Game MVP honors. But the win creates more chaos.

Quite a head-scratcher for the CFP committee

As the outright ACC champion, Duke earns automatic eligibility among the top five conference champions for the 12-team CFP field. But their 8-5 record and being unranked throughout the season put them at risk. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips and Manny Diaz repeatedly argued the league deserves two bids: one for the champion (now Duke) and another for the highest-ranked team like No. 12 Miami.

“The ACC champion should go to the College Football Playoff this year and every year,” said Manny Diaz.

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Duke advanced via a five-team tiebreaker after six ACC wins, proving resilience with four fourth-down conversions in the game alone. Key wins like over Illinois validated their $8M QB investment in Mensah. Yet, they had non-conference defeats against Illinois, Maine, and UConn. These losses rank Duke below JMU (12-1, Sun Belt champs, No. 25), which now eyes the fifth champion spot with analysts giving Duke under 1% odds. Models project JMU’s superior record trumps Duke’s title, potentially leaving the ACC with zero or one bid via Miami at-large.

“I’m not going to take anything away from James Madison,” Manny Diaz said.” It had a really great season. The Sun Belt has been a really good conference in years past, but most of its top teams are having a down year. So when you start comparing strength of schedule, you can’t just look at wins and losses. It’s who you play against. That’s the whole point of playing a Power 4 schedule.”

Tulane got its first bid after defeating North Texas 34-21. So now, the selection committee will need to weigh Duke’s resume against James Madison’s for the final slot.