For years, the Group of Five teams had to be nearly perfect just to be considered for the playoffs, and even then, they usually got left out. Remember when UCF went undefeated in 2017 and still didn’t get a shot? Even Cincinnati had to go unbeaten and beat Notre Dame to sneak in back in 2021, finally. But the new 12-team format that kicked off in 2024 changed everything.

With the expanded playoff guaranteeing one G5 team a spot, the door’s wide open. Now, the top G5 team gets an automatic bid. Boise State grabbed that golden ticket last year after a strong 12-2 season and a Mountain West title. As we are heading into the 2025 season, the race to grab it again is heating up. And there is one team hoping to make it to the playoffs this time.

UNLV is starting to get some real attention this year. ESPN Analytics is giving them a 21.3% shot at making the playoffs, which is pretty crazy for a G5 team. A lot of that hype comes from their new coach, Dan Mullen, who signed a massive $17.5 million deal with the Rebels. He’s a big-name guy who’s brought in a bunch of transfers and former top recruits from bigger schools. Now the goal is to turn all that talent into wins. It won’t be a walk in the park, especially against Boise State. But if UNLV handles teams like Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming, and Nevada, they could be in the playoff conversation for real.

The big day on UNLV’s calendar? October 18th at Boise State. It’s the only game ESPN’s FPI actually predicts them to lose, giving the Broncos about a 59.8% chance to win. And it makes sense. Boise State’s been a powerhouse, coming off one of their best seasons ever. They won back-to-back Mountain West titles and even made the College Football Playoff. Last year, they beat UNLV twice, once in the regular season and again in the conference title game.

The biggest knock on UNLV right now? Their super weak schedule. ESPN ranks it 113th in the nation, which basically means they’re not playing many tough teams. So even if the Rebels rack up a bunch of wins, the playoff committee might not take them seriously unless they win the Mountain West title. A win over UCLA in nonconference play could give them a tiny boost, but it’s not a game-changer. And if it comes down to UNLV vs. a team like Tulane, things could get dicey. Tulane plays Oklahoma, and if they somehow pull off a win there and also win their conference, the committee would probably lean their way.

UNLV reloads under Dan Mullen for season 2025

A new season for UNLV means a brand new chapter. With Barry Odom heading to Purdue, the Rebels didn’t waste time bringing up a big name, Dan Mullen. He’s not just here to win a few Mountain West games; he’s thinking way bigger. “I want to build a program that not just has the opportunity to compete in the Mountain West, but also, if you get on the big stage in the College Football Playoff, to go compete and win those games as well,” Mullen said at Mountain West Media Days.

UNLV’s offense is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in the Group of Five this year, and a big part of that is Dan Mullen. He’s really good at developing quarterbacks, and he’s got some cool players to work with, like Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan. The receiving corps got a glow-up, especially with Alabama transfer JoJo Earle joining the crew. Plus, the running backs are solid, and the offensive line has a lot of size and experience.

The defense has had a big shake-up, with only two starters coming back. The secondary looks pretty exciting with transfers like DeCambara from Oregon, Jaheem Joseph from West Virginia, and Jake Pope from Georgia joining the mix. At cornerback, you’ve got Denver Harris, who’s got serious potential, teamed up with Latterrance Welch from Arizona State. With a bunch of new talent and some seasoned transfers, UNLV is gearing up to make some noise in the 2025 season!