Lane Kiffin hasn’t coached a single game at LSU, yet the Tigers are +1400 to win the 2026 national championship. They are seventh-best in the country behind powerhouses like Notre Dame and Ohio State (both at +650), Indiana (+700), Texas (+750), Oregon (+900), and Georgia (+1100). But ESPN analyst Josh Pate believes Vegas might be severely underestimating Kiffin, given his history of building programs.

“LSU may be a little bit too low. So, LSU’s got +1400 odds, which is good for seventh best in the country. Sam Leavitt, if he’s fully healthy, and he gets paired up with Lane Kiffin, and he gets paired up with that offensive staff, and then you mesh in the portal class that they’re bringing in, and it’s not even done being constructed yet,” Josh Pate said on his podcast.

“Lane Kiffin has proven in the past that he and his staff do not need an incredibly long runway. Like they are very used to putting together a team in a little bit different manner than his forefathers have in the coaching world, at least. So I think LSU may be a little bit too low.”

Sam Leavitt is the centerpiece of everything Kiffin envisions at LSU. The preseason Big 12 Player of the Year suffered a season-ending foot injury against Houston. The injury forced him to undergo surgery and miss the remainder of the Sun Devils’ season, but Leavitt is the No. 1-ranked player in the entire transfer portal, according to 247Sports. 

The pairing of Leavitt with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. might be the most underrated aspect of LSU’s title chances. Weis Jr. followed Kiffin from Ole Miss to Baton Rouge on a restructured three-year, $7.5 million deal. It includes a unique “look-in” clause that ensures he remains the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the SEC. That’s a declaration that LSU intends to dominate offensively for years to come. 

LSU’s 38-player transfer haul has been rated the No. 1 class in America by 247Sports. It features seven Top-100 players, including elite additions at nearly every position. Beyond Leavitt, the Tigers landed safety Ty Benefield, edge rusher Jordan Ross, and a host of four-star talents who instantly upgrade a roster that underperformed under Brian Kelly’s final season. 

When you consider that Ohio State and Notre Dame are both sitting at +650 odds, the gap seems too wide. Indiana at +700 just won the national championship with an undefeated season. So their positioning makes sense. But LSU’s combination of elite quarterback play, top-tier offensive minds, and the nation’s best transfer class should theoretically place them closer to Texas (+750) and Oregon (+900). Their current seventh-place odds might just be too low. 

Building a championship defense one buyout at a time

When you’re assembling a roster that Josh Pate thinks deserves better than +1400 odds to win it all, you need difference-makers on both sides of the ball. And Lane Kiffin might just land one such player, which would cost him $550,000. 

Princewill Umanmielen hit the transfer portal, and if he decides to join LSU (or any other program), they’ll be liable to pay Ole Miss a $550,000 buyout. The No. 5-ranked prospect in the entire transfer portal and the top-rated edge rusher available this cycle. If he does join LSU, Kiffin will have secured the defensive centerpiece from his former program, who generated 51 pressures in 2025. 

That $550,000 buyout Ole Miss is collecting? It’s chump change when you consider what Umanmielen brings to a defense that’s already added safety Ty Benefield. Umanmielen changes game plans, forces double-teams, and creates one-on-one opportunities for the other rushers LSU is stockpiling through the portal. 

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Kiffin’s raid on his former roster reads like a greatest hits compilation. Linebacker TJ Dottery, offensive lineman Devin Harper, and wide receiver Winston Watkins Jr. are all following their former coach to LSU. Most first-year coaches spend 12-18 months implementing their system and waiting for recruits to develop. 

Kiffin just went out and grabbed 38 transfers who already know how to win at the highest level. The $550,000 for Umanmielen isn’t a liability. It’s an investment in a defender who could be terrorizing SEC quarterbacks by Week 1.