Auburn’s coaching carousel is spinning again after the Tigers coughed up $15.8 million just to reset the clock. Hugh Freeze’s tenure on The Plains has officially hit a stop after a 10-3 loss to Kentucky and AD John Cohen has already started conversations for his replacement. This time around, a final candidate could be shaping up. Jon Sumrall, the 43-year-old mastermind resurrecting Tulane football. But can Auburn actually afford the man who’s mastered winning on a private-school budget?

According to prediction market Kalshi, Jon Sumrall is the frontrunner, holding a 51% chance to land the Auburn gig, higher than any other contender. On November 11, On3 dropped a report from Pete Nakos that confirmed that piece of news. “Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is a serious contender and a name to know for the Auburn opening,” it wrote. That line sent the Tigers into overdrive, wondering if John Cohen would really shell out to bring this elite coach who knows how to win.

Jon Sumrall’s contract situation doesn’t make it easy. He earns about $3 million annually and is locked in at Tulane through 2029. Being a private school, Tulane’s buyout numbers are a mystery, but that check can’t be small. As Tulane AD David Harris said when extending the HC’s deal, “The landscape of college athletics is constantly evolving, and Jon’s vision helps to position us to succeed in this rapidly changing environment.” What’s not a mystery is his resume. 38-10 overall, two conference titles, and a program on the rise.

Meanwhile, Auburn is still writing checks to its ex HC. Hugh Freeze, who was making $6.75 million a year, is walking away with $15.8 million, or 75% of his remaining salary. The Tigers will pay him $406,105 a month until January 2029, per Pete Nakos. In simple terms, Auburn is still paying for the ghost of coaches past while looking for a savior to fix what’s broken. With Freeze’s payout draining their wallet and Jon Sumrall’s price tag probably far from modest, the Tigers’ next move needs to be as strategic as it is expensive.

Jon Sumrall could be the CEO that Auburn needs

If Auburn’s ready to spend, Jon Sumrall might be the best return on investment. The Athletic’s Chris Vannini described him as a CEO-type coach who doesn’t need to call all the plays but runs the entire ship like a professional. On McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, he said, “I’m impressed with the CEO type of role he plays. He’s not someone calling all the plays, demanding all these things… I think Sumrall could make a lot of sense at Auburn.”

Even national analyst Josh Pate saw this coming weeks ago in October, hinting that a Hugh Freeze firing could trigger a full-blown Job Sumrall sweep. “I think you’ll probably hear Jon Sumrall’s name… I happen to lean Jon Sumrall, like I’ve viewed that as the favorite to get that job if it comes open. And until proven otherwise, that’s the name I’m going to go with.”

It’s not just analysts talking. Lane Kiffin even joked in September that he’d soon see Jon Sumrall in the SEC head coaches’ meeting. “I told my staff yesterday, I said, ‘I feel like I’m going to be in head coach’s meetings in the conference’ — I think our first one is in January — ‘with Coach Sumrall,’” he said like he knew something the rest of us didn’t. Tulane managed to keep Jon Sumrall through last year’s carousel, but this time feels different. With Auburn dangling SEC money and a national platform, even loyalty has a limit.

Now the question Auburn fans are asking is if the Tigers can afford another rebuild, or will Jon Sumrall’s Green Wave wash over the Plains next? The clock’s ticking, and John Cohen’s next move could define Auburn football for the next decade.