Two years in, and Hugh Freeze’s tenure at Auburn Tigers hasn’t lived up to the roar it came in with. A program that was supposed to be reignited by one of the most polarizing but undeniably gifted offensive minds is still stuck in neutral. Freeze arrived with a reputation for elite recruiting, for QB development, and for beating Alabama—not just playing them close. But heading into Year Three, the heat on the Plains is rising, and patience is thinning.

For much of the Auburn fanbase, the fallback plan was always Freeze’s recruiting acumen. Even in lean years on the field, fans would remind themselves: he can still sell a vision. He can still pull top-tier talent. That narrative is now fraying. ESPN recruiting analyst Craig Haubert put it plainly on McElroy & Cubelic in the Morning when asked how AU could boost its underwhelming 2025 class.

“I think the best way…for them to improve on the class that they have right now is to turn things around on the field,” Haubert said. “There’s no doubt Hugh Freeze can recruit. He’s always done a great job…But I think some recruits are just waiting to see if Auburn actually turns it around on the field.” The parallels to Florida are hard to ignore.

After sputtering in early cycles, the Gators surged late, catalyzed by on-field results. “Florida’s really starting to pick up some momentum on the recruiting trail,” Haubert added. “They finished really strong last cycle. That was also kind of a little bit spurred by a strong finish on the field.” It’s a point that stings for Auburn. The Tigers’ 2025 class remains stuck in the single digits in commits, and unless Hugh Freeze turns things around fast, the portal may become the program’s primary lifeline—again.

It doesn’t help that Hugh Freeze entered the job having to recruit against Nick Saban in the same state. When Saban stepped away and Kalen DeBoer took over, there was a brief window of hope—maybe now it’s Auburn’s turn. That hope fizzled quickly. Alabama didn’t fall off. Auburn didn’t step up. But here’s where the story could still twist.

Auburn’s 2025 schedule is, by SEC standards, a gift-wrapped second chance. They avoid facing Arch Manning, DJ Lagway, LaNorris Sellers, and Garrett Nussmeier. Some of the league’s most electric rivals. It’s a favorable setup, one that’s quietly drawn Auburn into dark horse conversations. There’s logic behind Steven Lassan slotting the Tigers at No. 16 nationally. If they get hot early, Hugh Freeze could flip the narrative by midseason. But if they stumble again, recruiting momentum likely goes with them.

Because at the end of the day, wins are the only currency that matters. “I think if you see them get off to a hot start or put together a really strong 2025 class, you could see they could be this year’s Florida in a recruiting cycle,” Haubert said. “If they don’t…then it could be a real struggle for them.” And if that struggle continues, even Freeze’s track record may not be enough to buy more time in the pressure cooker that is Auburn football.

How much loss is too much for Hugh Freeze?

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Not after flipping the script in the 2024 cycle—snagging 9 of Alabama’s top 15 recruits while the Crimson Tide whiffed on all of them. AU fans thought the tide (pun intended) had finally turned. Hugh Freeze had finally done what no one had since Gene Chizik: win the state. But less than a year later, that dream feels like a mirage in the Alabama heat. After the underwhelming results of 6-7 (2023) and 5-7 (2024), where do you draw the line for Freeze?

While Freeze is still clinging to the “elite recruiter” label, ESPN FI gave Auburn a 21.% odds to reach the 12-team playoff, which is also the eighth highest nationally. As per Auburn Observer, the projection of an 8-4 result is at 22/6% while for 7-5 is at 27.1%. Any of those outcomes may not please the fans this time around, especially when their 2025 haul tells a very different story. Auburn’s current class ranks 59th in the nation, dead last in the SEC at 15th, with just seven commitments. That’s not just underwhelming, it’s a flat-out red flag. For a coach on one of the hottest seats in college football, the early returns feel like ice water in the face.

Kalen DeBoer has entered the chat—and started flipping the chessboard. On Thursday, Alabama landed its first monster in-state recruiting win under DeBoer, edging out Auburn for 5-star RB Ezavier Crowell. Analysts now expect the Tide to sweep the state’s remaining five-stars, including in WR Cederian Morgan and DB Anthony Jones. Meanwhile, Alabama’s top-15 prospects have committed just once to Hugh Freeze. Freeze needs to react quickly if he doesn’t want to lose his tag of an elite recruiter.