Can Ohio State’s record-breaker Jeremiah Smith break the Heisman curse? Every September, a QB or RB explodes out of the gate, and the media starts throwing around the word “Heisman.” And suddenly, we’d have a new favorite before conference play has even had time to ruin somebody’s Saturday. Then October arrives, and reality usually follows.

In a recent post on X, On3’s Brett McMurphy highlighted the long list of players from 2014 to 2025 who entered September as Heisman favorites but never finished the job. Marcus Mariota. Leonard Fournette. Lamar Jackson. Saquon Barkley. Tua Tagovailoa (twice). Trevor Lawrence. Matt Corral. C.J. Stroud. Caleb Williams. Jalen Milroe. Dante Moore.

Some had excellent seasons and became finalists. Some were still stars. They just didn’t win the trophy. History shows that being a September betting favorite is almost a trap. Since 2017, most of the early-season award leaders have failed to hold the top spot by December. Oddsmakers react to early stat inflation, but those short September odds rarely survive the actual long grind of the season.

Jeremiah Smith just went into Iowa City and shredded the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes had just pulled off a stunning win over Michigan, and Phil Parker’s defense has been giving opposing WRs a hard time. But it didn’t seem to bother Smith, who made eleven catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns. 

His 206-yard afternoon pushed him to 823 receiving yards and nine touchdowns through five games. He’s averaging 164.6 yards per game, with 44 catches already. And Jeremiah Smith isn’t just piling up statistics. He’s doing it in games that carry weight. He already has more than 200 receiving yards in both of Ohio State’s Big Ten games this season, with six touchdowns in conference play. 

Against Iowa, he also became Ohio State’s career leader in receiving touchdowns with 36 and moved into the program lead in receptions with 207. His 3,381 career receiving yards were already the school record. For a program that is known as WR-U, that’s absurd territory. Maybe he knows he’s Heisman-worthy.

Even at a powerhouse like Ohio State, wide receivers rarely turn program prestige into Heisman votes. The Buckeyes have seven Heisman trophies in their history, but every single one went to a running back or quarterback. Historically, playing at WR-U can actually split voter attention when multiple stars shine, making a receiver’s path to the top three even tougher.

After his second touchdown against Iowa, Jeremiah Smith struck the Heisman pose. Normally, that’s the sort of thing that invites jokes. But when you’re sitting on 823 yards and nine touchdowns after five games, you get a little more room to talk. Former Heisman winner Robert Griffin III certainly isn’t laughing.

“Right now the Heisman Trophy is Jeremiah Smith’s to lose,” he wrote, calling him an “absolute cheat code.”

RG3 then ran through Jeremiah Smith’s first five games, a stretch that included performances of 151 yards and two touchdowns, 164 yards and a touchdown, 85 yards, 217 yards and four touchdowns, followed by the explosion against Iowa. The pattern is there. But there is still a giant catch here. The Heisman isn’t handed out in October.

This midseason wall usually happens for two reasons. First, defensive coordinators now have enough tape to run double-bracket coverage and force quarterbacks to look elsewhere. Second, body fatigue sets in once conference play hits. We saw this with Saquon Barkley in 2017, when defensive adjustments slowed his momentum right when voting started to take shape.

The real test is coming for Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman case

QBs remain lurking. Miami’s Darian Mensah and Alabama’s Keelon Russell have been making their cases with consistency. Also, there’s a popular national narrative. The Heisman has overwhelmingly belonged to QBs. A WR needs more than impressive statistics. He needs moments that become impossible for voters, television networks, and fans to ignore.

Jeremiah Smith is already getting that treatment. The Athletic’s Week 5 straw poll gave him all 25 first-place votes. His betting odds have also exploded, moving from roughly +260 to +300 territory to around even money at some books. The market is now treating him like the guy everyone else has to catch. But the schedule is about to get nasty.

Ohio State’s got Indiana, USC, Oregon, and Michigan on their Big Ten schedule. Those games will decide whether Jeremiah Smith actually breaks the curse or just becomes the latest spectacular player who owned September and October before somebody else stole the trophy in December.