College football this year will see a mix of the greats and the underdogs. And then, some are fighting to reclaim their lost glory. Joel Klatt sounded the alarms for one such coach, who faces a do-or-die season this year. He started with a stint that had other programs in awe of his coaching genius. He has spent merely 9 years as a college football head coach. And now, his career is at stake after a series of disappointing finishes.

That figure is none other than USC‘s Lincoln Riley. Trojans fans had some hope when he was first hired as head coach. He was coming off of an Oklahoma stint where he recorded 4 double-digit finishes in 5 years and 4 consecutive Pac-12 conference titles. Those stats made him a conference juggernaut. At USC, he started with the same momentum, taking the Trojans to a Pac-12 championship appearance. But since then, Riley’s career has worryingly nosedived. That’s why in 2025, Lincoln Riley will be desperate to pull up his records at any cost. And that is the unanimous ultimatum for him from experts. A lot is at stake for the HC as the Trojans approach this season, and Riley cannot afford losses that are avoidable.

Joel Klatt, in a July 7 episode of his show, ranked USC as the 7 most likely team to make the playoffs this year. “He’s going to have to win this year. You can’t go 7-5 again. You just can’t,” the analyst said. But, he also laid out the grounds for Riley’s potential to meet this bare minimum. “You look at last year, you start with a win over LSU. You end with a win over Texas A&M. They showed they’re capable. They took Penn State to overtime,” Klatt added. In Riley’s first run up to the endgame as USC head coach, he was just one win shy of making it to the playoffs.

But Riley is making some developments to the program. Recruiting has picked up massively since the arrival of Chad Bowden. And, he has a promising DC in D’Anton Lynn, who significantly improved the defense last year. “If they were able to turn some of those close losses into wins, you’ve got Jayden Maiava back. He started the last four. He led the comeback against A&M. Now he’s had an entire off-season as the starter… If you limit turnovers, then you’re going to be in it. You’re going to have a chance to win 9 or 10 games,” Klatt added.

Lincoln Riley is now in a conference where the stakes are much higher than the Pac-12. His downward slope in the Big 10 now raises questions over his future with USC. Another national analyst sounded the alarms over his possible dismissal if Riley fails yet again.

Klatt noted some clear flaws in USC that hampered their season last year. The Trojans were not up to the mark with their run game. “I want to see them get back to running the football. And I want to see them get back to spreading the football out on the outside. I thought that that was a real marquee of what Lincoln Riley was at Oklahoma.” It’s surprising to see someone who was so successful at his former job suffer so much at his current one. The offensive line and the quarterbacks, the soul of any offense, also failed to impress.

Needless to say, Riley cannot afford a repeat of these known flaws this season. The records cannot show 7 or fewer wins at any cost. Josh Pate delivered another troubling verdict on the future of the HC’s career. “[You’ve] got to win on the field, or else it could all fall off the cliff. Then what do you do with Lincoln Riley? And remember, you’re in the Big 10. The Big 10’s not going to sit around and just kind of chill while you get your, you know what figured out. It leaves you in the dust. You don’t have the benefit of knowing no one’s going to pull away from you. They will pull away from you,” Pate said in a June 27 episode of his show.

The past three years are going to be a problematic blemish on Lincoln Riley’s career unless he manages to turn things around in this make-or-break season. He’s got some good things going on at USC, which deserve to see a future under him. Can Lincoln Riley deliver upon these expectations?