Kalen DeBoer cannot afford another slow start when he faces top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl. The path to victory seems clear enough. They have to lean on Ty Simpson’s elite passing attack and hope the defense can slow down Mendoza’s high-powered offense. But FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt has identified a potentially catastrophic wrench in Alabama’s game plan. 

“I don’t have a ton of faith that Alabama’s going to be able to run the football all that well in this game,” Klatt said on his show. “They just don’t run the football well. They’ll lean on the passing game, which is elite. Now, I think it’s going to be hard for Alabama to protect Ty Simpson. That offensive line, even on film in a game in which they won against Oklahoma, it’s not like their offensive line is playing great. A lot of it is Simpson’s ability to elude, play on time, and protect himself.” 

So, this Indiana team’s likely to get some pressure on Simpson,” Klatt continued. “There is some rain in the forecast, and for a team that can’t run the football all that well and has to throw the football, moisture in the air is never a good sign. So I would say that one favors Indiana a little bit.” 

This is the nightmare scenario for Kalen DeBoer’s squad. The weather might force Alabama to rely on a run game that’s been mediocre at best all season. The Tide could find themselves in quicksand against a complete Indiana team. Simpson was surgical against Oklahoma when he finally settled in. But that performance came after Alabama fell behind 17-0 early, and it required near-perfect execution in dry conditions. What happens when the ball’s slippery and the Tide are forced to grind out yards on the ground?​

The numbers on Alabama’s rushing attack tell a sobering story. Against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide managed -3 yards on 16 carries. They averaged -0.2 yards per attempt. Even more damning, no Alabama running back recorded a carry longer than 5 yards in that contest. 

That’s not a functional run game. Fans might argue that it was because they were missing Jam Miller. And while that might explain some tens of yards, it doesn’t explain the abysmal coaching of the running back room.

Jam Miller, who was expected to be the workhorse back after returning from a collarbone injury, has also been wildly inconsistent. Against Oklahoma, Miller carried 7 times for just 11 yards. It is not a serviceable running game. Kalen DeBoer has repeatedly acknowledged that they need to improve the running game, but it hasn’t shown in the performance. They have to do much better if they want to hold their own against the mighty Hoosiers. 

If Joel Klatt’s rain forecast materializes, the Tide will be forced to lean on Jam Miller and a rushing attack that’s been unreliable all year. Indiana is the top seed for a reason, and they’re built to exploit this exact weakness that Alabama is desperately trying to hide.​​

Simpson Embraces the Underdog Role

Ty Simpson is weaponizing the doubt that’s followed Alabama all season. During his Rose Bowl presser, the junior quarterback leaned into the disrespect narrative. “Yeah, I think one, it starts with just kind of the not caring mentality,” Simpson explained. “I talked about after the game, about, you know, how everybody just kind of wrote us off, me included. It made me feel some type of way. And so thank you guys. Thank the media.” 

It’s not often you hear a player at a program like Alabama openly admit to feeling slighted. But Simpson’s not hiding from it. The Crimson Tide isn’t supposed to be here, according to the national narrative. And that’s exactly the fuel they’re running on heading into Pasadena.​

However, Simpson’s mentality extends beyond that. When asked about maintaining that aggressive “let it rip” approach that helped Alabama erase a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma, he doubled down on the outsider mentality. “It’s kind of the same, you know, mentality going in, right? Like, nobody expected us to make it to the Rose Bowl. Nobody expected us to make it to the playoffs,” Simpson said.

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That’s the swagger you want from your quarterback in a must-win playoff game. Simpson remembers the pain of losing in the Rose Bowl two years ago to Michigan. And he’s made it clear he’s doing everything possible to avoid feeling that way again.