A disastrous 5-7 2024 campaign marking the program’s first losing season since 2001—what was arguably supposed to be a home-run hire, ended up dog-walking the Badgers straight into the abyss. To say Luke Fickell is on the proverbial “hot seat” of CFB coaching would be an understatement. Year three is now a referendum on his entire tenure—zero margin for error and pressure so immense it can put Hugh Freeze’s situation to shame. And if maybe, as a Badger, you thought Luke Fickell might somehow redeem himself. Well, unfortunately for you, Wisconsin’s schedule just handed Fickell a shovel and pointed him straight to the head coach graveyard.

The warning shot comes from Josh Pate as he not only sees through the Badgers’ 2025 but reads its eulogy: “Oh, prayers for Wisconsin, man.” This wasn’t hyperbole; it was a verdict. “Wisconsin by a mile has the hardest schedule in the Big Ten,” Pate adds. The nightmare begins with a non-conference road trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama, where Kalen DeBoer ain’t waiting with open arms to welcome Fickell. You best believe the Crimson Tide are going to stat-pad the he-k out of this game. And even if Fickell survives with a scratch, will his squad be able to breathe through the four-week crucible starting in October? At Michigan, home against Iowa and Ohio State, and then a cross-country flight to face Oregon.

See, Pate wasn’t joking when he said the Badgers “may not be favored in any of those games.” The cold, hard numbers from Las Vegas, where the team’s over/under win total is set at a dismal 5.5, are a stunning statement for a program that hasn’t had back-to-back losing seasons since the early 90s.

Faced with a schedule designed by a sadist, Fickell’s only path to survival lies within his own locker room—a room that has been radically overhauled out of sheer necessity. The Phil Longo experiment didn’t just fail—it gutted the Badgers QB position completely with both 2024 starter Tyler Van Dyke and his replacement Braedyn Locke fleeing Madison.

Now, Fickell is forced to hit the transfer portal’s emergency button yet again, pinning his survival on two new faces: Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr. and San Diego State’s Danny O’Neil. But will this be enough? The schedule, the QB crisis, Longo’s failed pass-happy “Air Raid” offense. All of these point to a complete rewrite of Wisconsin’s DNA, and things like these take time.

How will Fickell manage it all? More so with the University’s final call hanging over his neck like a guillotine.

The $40M Luke Fickell verdict

While you might think this one-year contract extension for Fickell was a vote of confidence, it seems more like Wisconsin’s plan to fire him midway if the season goes awry. As Ryan Brown explains, the brutal schedule “will snowball on him… and he’ll be either a lame duck head coach that everybody knows about, or he’ll be fired mid-season.”

The $30M buyout clause, while a big number, might be the golden shot for Wisconsin to hit the reset button. Lose a few pennies to secure the bank—type of situation. Right now, the HC has been put in a paradox: a massive contract but a schedule that will make the toughest HC cry for their mom.

There are no more excuses, and as Pate’s warning echoes, there may be no more chances.