You know how every offseason, there’s one team that no one wants to touch? Too many question marks. Not enough answers. But then, out of the blue, someone throws the spotlight on them, and you’re like, wait, what? That’s Oklahoma for you. Did we see flashes from the Sooners in 2024 that make us believe a better season lies in store for them? No. 6-7 season. A messy QB situation. Jackson Arnold’s plight and his unceremonious departure. 

But behind the mess, OU’s President Joseph Harroz Jr. and AD Joe Castiglione are doubling down on Brent Venables. “Obviously, we’d love to have more wins. But our confidence in the coach, it’s as steady as it’s ever been,” the president said. Even so, there’s a growing sense that Brent Venables is walking a tightrope over a canyon with no net. Especially when there’s a $9M potential successor lurking in Knoxville. 

Josh Pate sees something that others don’t. In his College Football Show episode on May 11, he ranked Oklahoma as a top 10 team in his post-spring rankings. “Another one probably I think is the most overlooked of the major conference teams heading into the summer is Oklahoma,” he said. “Apparently I’m higher on Oklahoma than anybody is I think it could be a top 10 team coming into the season, not one of those wait and see sort of things.” And it’s all because he’s buying into that QB-OC duo—John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle. 

John Mateer was the guy at Washington State—3,139 yards and 29 TDs. He’s the kind of guy who, with a clean pocket, can carve up SEC defenses. And Ben Arbuckle, who was his OC for two seasons in 2023 and 2024, knows how to develop his QBs. No wonder Josh Pate’s high on the pair. “I believe in the quarterback OC addition that much,” he said. “I believe in Mateer and Arbuckle and their addition to that team that much.” Might be a bold prediction, but not baseless. 

Of course, all of this hinges on one thing—the offensive line not being garbage. “If that offensive line is in decent shape, it’s going to be a really tough team to beat,” he added. Last year, the Sooners ranked 119th in passing, which is embarrassing in their first year in the SEC. But 2025 isn’t going to be a walk in the park for Brent Venables’ team.

Their schedule is brutal. Athlon Sports ranked it the second-toughest schedule in the nation. They’ve got home games against Michigan, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. And then, there are those rough road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Texas. Can we smile with a tear? Because this could be a make-or-break season for the HC. 

Brent Venables’ hot seat heats up

What if Brent Venables flops again? That brings us to the $44.8 million fate. Maybe Oklahoma brass still has some patience running deep for their fourth-year HC, but who are we kidding? If the Sooners do not rebound this year, patience will run out fast for the HC, who signed a new six-year contract in June 2024 with an annual income of over $8.5M. The buyout is massive now, sure—$44.8MM—but it drops to $34.9M after 2025. That clock is ticking. 

And here’s the kicker. That name that’s been floating around as a potential replacement? Tennessee’s HC Josh Heupel. Yeah, he already has a decade of experience in Norman. So, no wonder CFB analyst Berry Tramel said on the Saturday Down South, “He’d be the first call, I assume. I have no idea if Josh would entertain the notion or accept. I have no idea. I do know this: he still has a lot of ties. You know, family still lives here. His sister married the son of David Boren, the 24-year-old OU president.” 

So Brent Venables isn’t coaching just for bowl eligibility. He’s grinding to keep his job. And with injuries already hitting the WR room and a lack of experienced depth behind John Mateer after Cole Gonzales’ departure, it only adds pressure to 2025.