Is Kalen DeBoer really one loss away from being pushed onto the coaching carousel and straight into Michigan’s waiting arms? That possibility was floated into the spotlight this week. ESPN analyst Michael Wilbon, speaking on Pardon the Interruption, suggested that DeBoer’s next move might be dictated more by circumstance than choice.

“When Alabama loses to Oklahoma, let me say it again, when Alabama loses to Oklahoma, the coach of Alabama, half the people in the state will want to run him out, and he’ll be on a carousel,” Wilbon said on Pardon the Interruption. “Oh, wait, that’s a G5 being flown to Ann Arbor, Michigan. Where he said, ‘Oh, no, I don’t have any interest in that.’ He’ll have interest. Later tonight, and then Alabama will be in the coaching. They’ll be looking tomorrow at 20 here on Friday.”

From a results-based standpoint, the pressure points are easy to identify. DeBoer enters the Oklahoma matchup already winless against the Sooners and coming off a season in which Alabama failed to reach the College Football Playoff. Another year falling short of that benchmark would carry real weight in Tuscaloosa, where expectations rarely allow for extended adjustment periods, even under a first coach following Nick Saban.

In Wilbon’s view, that postseason defeat would immediately ignite scrutiny around DeBoer, forcing Alabama to reassess its leadership while Michigan capitalizes on the opening left behind by Sherrone Moore’s departure. That sentiment hasn’t been isolated. Earlier in the week, former Crimson Tide running back Damien Harris echoed similar concerns, pointing to the Oklahoma matchup as a defining moment for DeBoer’s standing within the program.

Publicly, DeBoer and Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne have dismissed any suggestion that outside opportunities are being considered. But skepticism persists, fueled by recent setbacks that have landed heavily with the fan base and boosters.

Michigan, meanwhile, is positioned to exploit any instability. Financially, the Wolverines are no longer constrained in the way they once were. Reports suggest the program is prepared to absorb DeBoer’s $87 million buyout if necessary, and ESPN analyst Greg McElroy has reinforced the belief that Michigan is willing to operate without a ceiling if it means securing its preferred candidate.

The immediate complication is Oklahoma itself. The Sooners’ defense presents a significant hurdle, leading the nation in tackles for loss at 9.6 per game while ranking among the top units in scoring defense and total yardage allowed. A dominant showing by Oklahoma would only intensify the scrutiny surrounding DeBoer’s tenure and add urgency to the broader conversation. Beyond wins and losses, ESPN’s Pete Thamel questions whether Alabama is the right cultural fit for Kalen DeBoer or not.

“Like he’s not a guy who wants attention,” Thamel said on ESPN’s College Gameday podcast. “He’s kind of the Midwest, right? He’s not like these SEC super preacher coaches, who are always on from a pure fit of region program, you know, vibe dynamic. I would think in a vacuum, as Rece [Davis] said, and it was a really good way to say it, it’s a better fit at Michigan.”

What adds more to the speculations is that DeBoer has not stayed longer than two years at Fresno State or Washington. Despite ending up with a championship berth. So, that might be the case with Alabama too. But for now, DeBoer looks very comfortable in Tuscaloosa, with his family and everyone settled in. Yet the chances squarely depend on their game against Oklahoma.

With DeBoer’s stance, another top target spot looks shaky.

Kalen DeBoer surpasses Michigan’s top odd candidate

The Michigan coaching carousel is taking turns every other week. With Kalen DeBoer’s name constantly swirling in the mix, another head coach tops the odds. Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has emerged as the top favorite candidate to replace Sherrone Moore, holding 31% odds as per Kalshi. After taking his team to the playoffs and winning the championship game last season, Dillingham has become perfect eye candy for the Wolverines.

On top of it, his recent comments on Arizona State’s limited NIL resources have added to the buzz even more. To keep him close to the program, the Sun Devils are in talks with Dillingham’s agents to come up with a contract extension. After he already triggered a $200k raise by winning the regular season with 8 wins. But that raise might not offer what Michigan can.

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With him, Kalen DeBoer still sits in the second spot with 14% odds, and now, after Michael Wilbon’s stance, his move to Michigan looks even more real. For some time, Washington Huskies’ Jedd Fisch was in the mix, but his odds have fallen from 54% to 13% after their win against Boise State.

Now, it will be interesting to see if Oklahoma’s loss actually forces DeBoer to make another coaching move.