With playoff hopes in Tuscaloosa slipping, the race to replace former PSU head coach James Franklin is accelerating faster than anyone expected. Retired linebacker Jon Sauber’s latest assessment only reinforces that, placing Kalen DeBoer at No. 2 in his updated candidate rankings and identifying him as Penn State’s most realistic target. But the question now is how much of that interest is rooted in actual traction?

“He’s been one of Penn State’s top targets from the beginning. I think it was, early on, a little bit pie in the sky. The Centre Daily Times’ Penn State beat reporter Jon Sauber said, “Of course, Alabama’s close game with South Carolina—there was a chance it could have picked up there. It didn’t, and then the loss to Oklahoma nudged the door open a little bit.”

The belief in the fit isn’t random. Penn State wants a coach with two things: proven head-coaching success and elite recruiting chops. DeBoer checks both. He rebuilt programs at Sioux Falls and Washington, stacked a 121-18 career record, and took the Huskies to the playoffs before replacing Nick Saban at Alabama. His blueprint of rapid culture change, roster buy-in, and aggressive player acquisition matches exactly what Pat Kraft wants in the next era of Penn State football.

The part that makes PSU believe this might really happen is DeBoer’s current reality. The 8-2 record is strong, but Alabama’s playoff hopes are wobbling. Losses to Florida State and Oklahoma have already put the fan base on edge, and the latest drop to No. 10 in the CFP rankings didn’t help. It isn’t that Alabama doubts DeBoer’s ability, but the expectations are suffocating, and patience is nonexistent. Sauber hinted at that pressure himself, saying the fit between DeBoer and Alabama has not always been the best, which is why interest on DeBoer’s side can’t be dismissed.

Penn State also knows DeBoer wouldn’t be starting from zero if he came to Happy Valley. His recruiting profile fits the rebuild perfectly. He is a magnet for high-end offensive talent, and he retained multiple five-star commits through turmoil last year. That is the exact trait PSU doesn’t want to lose after Franklin. DeBoer’s offensive identity, plus the Nittany Lions’ defensive talent base, could create the most balanced roster PSU has had in a decade. So, would he really walk away from Alabama?

There are signs that it’s possible, but only if the timing hits. DeBoer’s contract gives Penn State a narrow window: his buyout is $4 million until December 31, then drops to $3 million next year before disappearing entirely in 2027. If Alabama misses the Playoff and the temperature around his tenure spikes, that window aligns almost perfectly with Penn State’s search timeline. It’s why insiders believe Kraft will move immediately if DeBoer signals any openness. Because the price, the pressure, and the opportunity may never line up this cleanly again.

But if things go in Alabama’s favor, Sauber said Penn State might turn to Georgia Tech’s head coach, Brent Key. For now, DeBoer is positive about their chances.

Kalen DeBoer’s team’s playoff berth looks shaky

The new college football ranking didn’t sit well with Kalen DeBoer and his team, as after their loss to Oklahoma, they fell to No. 10 with just Eastern Illinois and Auburn left on their schedule. The resume still has ranked wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, which were all top 25 opponents at the time of victory. But despite those wins, they are ranked behind two-loss Notre Dame. This puts Alabama in fear of missing the playoffs this year, too.

CFP chairman Hunter Yurachek explained the reason behind it, saying, “Those are two really good 8-2 teams. But I think you look at the losses of Notre Dame and the losses of Alabama, and that was really one of the defining metrics that we used.”

Their season-opening loss to Florida State did most of the damage. Even Kalen DeBoer expressed his confidence in Alabama’s playoff berth while focusing on wins. DeBoer further adds that he knows the CFP committee looks “strongly at the losses,” but also said that Alabama has “shown consistency and improvement throughout the year.”

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Now, let’s wait and see if the remaining two games land Alabama in the playoffs or not.