For the first time since the 2023 season, Alabama will return to the Rose Bowl for the college football playoff. The Crimson Tide will take on the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers on one of the sport’s biggest stages. Bama also has never faced Indiana. While Kalen DeBoer’s squad prepares for the on-field challenges, reports reveal external issues that could derail their national title aspirations.

According to broadcast meteorologist James Spann, there’s cloudy and unsettled weather in Pasadena, California. Reports reveal that if the climate remains the same, rain is expected during the game.

“The sky will be cloudy, and the pattern continues to favor unsettled weather,” Spann wrote on X. “We expect periods of rain during the game with temperatures rising from the upper 50s at kickoff to the low 60s by the final whistle.”

This will be the second straight postseason where Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide has to deal with wet conditions. Last year, when Alabama met Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Florida, rain played a big role in Bama’s 19-13 loss.

There was a brief pregame downpour, followed by established heavy rain in the first quarter. On a wet surface, Bama’s offense turned the ball over three times in four plays, including a fumbled snap by Jalen Milroe during the rain, then an interception and strip sack.

This allowed Michigan to extend a 3-0 lead into 16-0 by capitalizing on turnovers. On the slippery grass field, multiple Alabama players lost their footing during the rain. This continued even after the rain stopped. Jalen Milroe confirmed he changed the game plan during the first quarter. 

“It was slippery grass, a different surface that we’ve been on before,” Milroe said. “Just trying to get the right traction so we can [play].”

Though Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide posted 13 points, it wasn’t enough to overcome Michigan’s 19-point lead. That’s a non-championship bowl, and Bama’s loss didn’t affect their campaign. However, on the journey to reclaim the national championship, the wet conditions are serious business for DeBoer’s Alabama. 

Since the Crimson Tide is currently preparing for the CFP quarterfinals in Tuscaloosa, before traveling to California, they need to make plans to overcome the same external threat they faced the previous year.

Key for Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama to pull off an upset win

Keeping external factors aside, Alabama will enter the Rose Bowl as a 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana. Though the oddsmakers favor the Hoosiers, Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide will be looking to pull off an upset win. At this stage, ESPN’s EJ Manuel added his two cents on what Bama has to do to keep their national title hopes alive.

“It starts with turnovers for Alabama,” said Manuel on the December 27 episode of ESPN SportsCenter. “We saw that in the game against Oklahoma, where they were able to turn over John Mateer. If Alabama wants to stay in it, you have to create some havoc. Indiana, they’re great in the turnover margin. +17 on the season.”

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If you take a look at Indiana’s season so far, they’ve taken advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. The Hoosiers have a +17 turnover margin, which is the most so far this season, equaling Texas Tech. Indiana recovered 8 of 11 opponent fumbles, and retained 5 of their 6 fumbles so far this season.

On the other hand, Alabama has lost the turnover battle only 3 times this season, losing two of those games, and both were costly. One against Oklahoma in the regular season and one against Georgia in the SEC title game. So, to pull an upset win, Kalen DeBoer’s Bama has to control its turnover margin. At the same time, they have to make better use of Indiana’s mistakes to stay alive.