Misery struck once again for Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama as they fell (21-23) to Oklahoma at Bryant-Denny Stadium. After eight straight wins following an early loss to Florida State, this defeat puts their playoff hopes in jeopardy. But even if that’s the case, they might still make it to the SEC title game.

Even with a win today, Alabama’s place in the SEC Championship Game wasn’t guaranteed. As a three-way tie between Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M is still possible. So in that case, the SEC will considers each team’s record against common opponents, not just head-to-head results. Georgia and A&M both defeated Auburn, so one loss to Auburn could put Alabama in a tricky position in the tiebreaker, despite their win over Georgia. As Bama’s reporter Mike Rodak points out, “Alabama’s head-to-head win over Georgia is mostly moot in 3+ team tiebreaker scenarios.”

But their win against Auburn will remove this tricky three-team tiebreaker that could have hurt their chances. As Nick Kelly noted on X, “Even if Alabama loses to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and Ole Miss and Georgia win the rest of their conference games, Alabama will still make the SEC Championship Game, per @mred53’s SEC FB standings tiebreaker calculator.”

With a win against Auburn, they can make it to the title game, but there is another case too. If Florida and Kentucky win next week, that might give an edge to Georgia and Ole Miss with a stronger conference-opponent winning percentage. In that case, Alabama might miss their SEC title game chances even with a win against Auburn, but looking at these two teams condition, that might happen after all.

Now, if Alabama beats Auburn and makes it to the SEC championship game, it would be likely to play Texas A&M or Georgia in Atlanta. So, if Alabama wins that game, they will get a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the CFP. But if Alabama loses the SEC Title game, it becomes a 10-3 team. Now, the CFP committee has given the benefit of the doubt to teams with conference title game losses before, like SMU last year, but then it might totally depend on the size of their loss.

But for now Kalen DeBoer’s team will need teams like Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and the winner of the Oregon vs. USC game to fall in their final games so that their resume looks stronger. But looking at their schedule, that looks like a dream.

Kalen DeBoer gets real on the loss

Oklahoma’s loss didn’t just end the eight-game regular-season win streak but also the 17-game home win streak for Alabama. Things got worse for them after committing three costly turnovers, missing a 36-yard field goal before halftime, and failing to force a turnover for the first time this season. Even Kalen DeBoer couldn’t help but point out his team’s struggles to finish key drives and protect the ball.

After the game, DeBoer laid out his take on the entire game. “I think we had almost 275 yards in the first half. What’s disappointing is the turnovers. Even with the interception, we were working deep into their own territory,” DeBoer said.

No wonder Lane Kiffin was going crazy over Brent Venables’s defense. As they managed just 212 total yards on offense, their 20 points came from the dynamic defense and special teams. Ty Simpson had the worst performance of the season as Oklahoma sacked him four times. But despite that, DeBoer mentioned it wasn’t all the offensive line’s mistake. “With the pressure they brought, he’s got to get rid of it,” DeBoer said.

This loss marks Kalen DeBoer’s first home loss as Alabama’s head coach. Now that the playoffs look out of sight for them, let’s wait and see if they can come up strong against Auburn or not!