Penn State is pacing around in the shadows ever since they fired their HC James Franklin. And while Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer had been in the replacement talk since day one, a new spark popped up. The 121-18 HC’s coaching future could be decided by the upcoming Iron Bowl. 

“Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer is still in play for the Penn State job as of Wednesday afternoon,” PSU insider Dylan Dawson tweeted on November 26. “Outcome of Bama-Auburn on Saturday night will have huge implications on KDB’s future. DeBoer or not, I’m anticipating Penn State to announce their next head coach by next Tuesday at the latest.”

Right now, James Madison’s Bob Chesney is the betting favorite at 36% on Kalshi. But behind him, a familiar crimson shadow is creeping up the odds board. Kalen DeBoer’s chances have risen to 15%, even peaking at 23% this week. However, Penn State comes with similar pressure as in Tuscaloosa. If he does land in Happy Valley, expectations will be sky-high from day one. James Franklin’s 104-45 record reads nice on paper, until you hit the fine print. He’s 4-21 vs. AP top-10 teams, 4-17 vs. Michigan and Ohio State, and a resume that always felt a half-step short of elite. And now, the Nittany Lions are chasing credibility.

Meanwhile, Kalen DeBoer is busy winning football games with a deaf ear to the rumor mill. Alabama sits at 9-2 after a 56-0 demolition of Eastern Illinois, gearing up for a season-defining Iron Bowl. But the noise around his future isn’t quieting, especially with the stakes this high. One slip against Auburn, and the coaching carousel door swings wider than ever. His contract suggests he should be untouchable. Eight years, $10 million this year, rising to nearly $12 million by the end. It was supposed to be the stabilizer in the post-Saban era. But anything could change in modern college football. And Penn State is lurking, watching, waiting.

“To me, the biggest enigma of who they are going to unveil,” ESPN’s Pete Thamel said on College GameDay’s podcast, “They really thought they could land one of these, like playoff-type coaches… There were a lot of Kalen DeBoer rumors. I’ve been told those are not true. But where they go, it’s going to be really interesting.” 

And when a search gets weird, big names start looking possible again.

Kalen DeBoer’s future hangs on Iron Bowl outcome

Here’s the transition nobody in Tuscaloosa wants to hear. The only way DeBoer-to-Penn-State becomes real is if Saturday goes sideways.

“He’s been one of Penn State’s top targets from the beginning,” Centre Daily News’ Jon Sauber said. “The loss to Oklahoma nudged the door open a little bit. I still think Alabama would have to miss the playoffs for this to become a reality possibility. It would include a loss to Auburn to end the year.”

And suddenly, a rivalry game has become a career referendum.

Auburn’s defense isn’t exactly rolling out a welcome mat. D.J. Durkin, who’s taking the interim duties after High Freeze’s firing, just secured a salary bump to $2.5 million. And with it comes expectation especially in a rivalry that’s ended Alabama seasons without remorse. Stunt-heavy fronts, a downhill linebacker core, and just enough controlled chaos to disrupt a rhythm-based offense like Kalen DeBoer’s. The Iron Bowl has ended dynasties before. It can certainly spark a coaching exodus. 

If they drag Alabama into a trench fight, suddenly Kalen DeBoer’s 9-2 record starts being viewed through a much harsher lens. Because if Alabama finishes 9-3, with no SEC title trip and no playoff shot, the honeymoon period evaporates overnight. 

And Penn State had already built the runway. They’ve set a public Tuesday deadline. They just need Auburn to do what the Tigers have done far too many times in this rivalry. That is, ruin Alabama’s season and create the kind of fallout that makes even the most loyal coach look for a quieter room.