Tuesday night offered a lifeline for Kenny Dillingham’s ASU. The Sun Devils cracked the CFP rankings at No. 25 for the first time this season, but with two losses to key conference rivals, their path to repeating as Big 12 champions is narrow. They must now rely on other teams slipping to keep their playoff hopes alive.

“Only Texas Tech and BYU can clinch spots in the Big 12 championship game this weekend (Tech is off). ” On Wednesday, college football beat writer Vannini wrote while outlining the Big 12 race scenario, “ASU, Houston, and Utah still have a path if they don’t.”

ASU sits fifth in the Big 12 with a 7-3 overall record and two games remaining. Now, to enhance their rank, winning against Colorado and Arizona seems mandatory. But the road will not be easy without BYU and Texas Tech’s failures. While Texas Tech (10-1) is safe in the field, BYU (9-1) just missed the cut after falling 29-7 to Texas Tech. But don’t sleep on Dillingham’s ASU.

In the new 12-team CFP, winning your conference is golden, as you nail the championship, and you’re in. Yes, the top five conference champs get automatic berths. Even better, the top four grab a first-round bye. Already carrying three losses, including defeats to Houston and Utah, ASU can only stay in the conference race if BYU and Cincinnati each stumble once.

Simply put, if ASU wants to get back to Dallas, the following things must happen. ASU must beat Colorado and Arizona to stay in the race, but their fate also depends on other results. They can only make the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech beats West Virginia, BYU loses to Cincinnati but beats UCF, and Cincinnati loses to TCU. If all that happens, ASU could end up in a four-way tie and win the tiebreaker.

While it seems like a waiting game for ASU, the Sun Devils are still very much in the hunt. As Heather Dinich noted that as per ESPN analytics, Utah holds an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, followed by ASU at 8.4% and Cincinnati at 1.9%.

Here, Dillingham has an advantage, as he knows the stage and competitiveness. Last season, as the No. 4 seed in the first-ever 12-team CFP, they earned a first-round bye. But this season, while ASU needs a little help to secure its fate, the playoff committee acknowledged Dillingham’s squad still has chances, despite losses.

CFP committee confirms Kenny Dillingham’s CFP hopes

ASU’s spot in the CFP rankings is no accident. Even with three losses to Utah, Houston, and Texas Tech, a win at Iowa State continues to boost ASU’s profile.

“The committee has a lot of respect for Arizona State,” said CFP chair Hunter Yurachek. “They’ve had a lot of injuries this year and continue to play through those. They’re the one team that’s beaten Texas Tech, who’s ranked No. 5, a team that is highly regarded by this committee.”

“I fully expect the Big 12 to earn multiple College Football Playoff bids this year, and to show, once again, that we can compete with anyone.” Even, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark highlighted the strength of the committee’s recognition.

ASU’s ranking reflects both the respect the committee has for its resilience and the potential for a rapid rise should the Sun Devils finish strong. Now, with BYU struggling after a loss to the Raiders and Utah’s dominance over lesser opponents, the playoff picture remains fluid. But Kenny Dillingham’s ASU faces obstacles to reach the Big 12 title game.

Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Colorado are on all four schedules in a potential tiebreaker scenario, and ASU would emerge as the undefeated team against that trio if it wins out. We will see what transpires after Week 13.