Through the first eight games, Miami played like a team built for a deep College Football Playoff run. But just before the Notre Dame test, Mario Cristobal lost a major piece of the offense in Malachi Toney. The Hurricanes then suffered their first defeat and watched their position in the CFP rankings take a hit. Now, Kirk Herbstreit isn’t convinced Miami should be looking past Duke.

During his November 12 appearance on The Pat McAfee Show, Kirk Herbstreit interrupted a discussion about Miami’s remaining schedule to deliver a blunt warning to Pat McAfee and his crew. Duke might not have the ranking or reputation of a playoff contender, but the ESPN analyst believes the Blue Devils deserve considerably more respect than they’re getting.

“Be careful. Be careful Saturday,” he said. “I’m just saying be careful besides you bulls—ting around with the SEC. Just be careful Saturday.”

The warning came as Miami prepares to host Duke on November 14. The Hurricanes have bigger ambitions than just surviving another ACC opponent. But after what happened against Notre Dame, there is not much room for another careless performance.

Kirk Herbstreit’s warning wasn’t based on Duke’s name or reputation. He has been watching what the Blue Devils are doing on the field. The analyst pointed out that Manny Diaz’s team has been putting opponents away convincingly, suggesting its 7-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Duke has won three straight and is already bowl-eligible. More importantly, Manny Diaz knows Miami from the inside. He coached the Hurricanes from 2019 to 2021 before moving to Duke. Former Heisman winner Cam Newton also believes that history makes Saturday’s game even trickier for Miami.

On 4th & 1 With Cam Newton, the former NFL QB brought up Diaz’s success with Duke last season, when the Blue Devils won the ACC championship. Miami, meanwhile, missed out on the ACC title even after a 10-2 regular season finish.

“Last year, Manny Diaz won the ACC championship at Duke,” Newton said. “Something that he never did as a head coach at Miami. Miami, on the other hand, did not win the ACC championship. They barely got into the game.”

Diaz knows Miami well. He also knows how to beat teams, as his Duke side showed last season. Now, he gets another shot at his old program. Miami, meanwhile, will again be without Malachi Toney. The receiver is recovering from surgery on his injured ankle and also missed the Notre Dame game. His absence hurt. 

Miami managed only 145 first-half yards and trailed 17-3. Darian Mensah brought the offense back to life after halftime, but it wasn’t enough to avoid a 31-24 loss. Urban Meyer previously compared losing Malachi Toney to Ohio State having to play without Jeremiah Smith. Cam Newton offered a similarly troubling assessment of Miami’s situation.

“Even with Malachi Toney, they was up for an uphill battle,” he said. “Now you remove him… We got to see Darian Mensah. He is a Heisman hopeful. But if we take away one particular ingredient of that cake that you’ve been cooking up this year, it’s very pedestrian.”

Toney had 73 catches, 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games. He was behind a huge chunk of Miami’s passing offense. Losing that kind of production leaves a hole that’s tough to fill.

And Duke isn’t the Hurricanes’ final concern. Virginia Tech comes next on November 21. James Franklin’s 6-2 Hokies won’t make things easier. Miami has already slipped to No. 7 after the Notre Dame loss. Another defeat could make its playoff chase even messier. Kirk Herbstreit sees the danger. Duke is no free win, especially with Toney still out.