According to the CFP set standard, the Texas Longhorns’ playoff dream might have come to an end after their 35-10 loss to Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs for the third time in a row. With the loss today, Texas is 7-3 now. Mind you, no three-loss team has ever made the playoffs. But Kirk Herbstreit was openly showing bias while they were in the game.

On November 15, Zachary Neel hopped onto X and called out Kirk Herbstreit’s bias toward the SEC: “Kirk Herbstreit is currently arguing that Texas still has a chance at the CFP despite having three losses. Not even denying the bias anymore.” Was it pure bias or just deep analytical thinking? Let’s break that down.

Losing to Ohio State, Florida, and then Georgia means all three losses came against major, highly ranked opponents, which helps soften the blow a little. However, even “good” losses still count as losses, and reaching three before November usually puts a team on the outside looking in. At this point, Texas would no longer control its own path and would need a lot of help from other teams slipping up.

Further, the selection committee heavily values win–loss record and has always chosen teams with one or two losses at most. Even though Texas played a tough schedule, went on the road to Columbus, and challenged itself early, the committee usually rewards teams that schedule big games and win them. With three losses, Texas would fall behind several other contenders from around the country.

For Texas to have any remaining chance, it would need to win out after the Georgia game and finish 9-3, including big victories over Arkansas and undefeated No. 3 Texas A&M. A win over the Aggies, especially with them ranked in the top three, would greatly boost Texas’ résumé. But even then, the Longhorns would need chaos.

Multiple top teams would have to lose unexpectedly, conference champions would need two or more losses, and the committee would have to value Texas’ strength of schedule in a way it has not done before. But they still cannot be put over one-loss teams like Ole Miss and Georgia. Plus, there are three two-loss teams in the SEC (Alabama, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt). No need to bother counting how many three-loss teams are in the SEC.

Realistically, a three-loss Texas team will not make the playoffs. But if they win in a blowout against Texas A&M in the final week, the CFP may show some remorse for their strength of schedule. For that to happen, everything has to work in their favor. Truth be told, that feels like a fairy tale. Their best goal at that point would be earning a high-quality New Year’s Six bowl bid. The committee might respect how challenging their schedule was, but history makes it clear that three losses almost always take a team out of contention. So yes, Herbstreit needs to go easy on glazing the Longhorns.

What about their SEC title championship hopes?

Even though Texas did not get the final and official out of the playoff letter, their hopes of winning the SEC title are officially over. Conference championships depend only on conference records, and with the Longhorns now having two SEC losses, they can no longer catch the teams at the top. Even if they win their remaining games, too many other teams hold the tiebreakers over them.

Texas is still a relatively new member of the SEC, and they’re trying to win their first conference title since joining last year. But this season hasn’t gone their way in conference play. The losses to Florida and Georgia ended any realistic shot of reaching the SEC Championship Game. With so many strong SEC teams ahead of them, the Longhorns simply ran out of room to make up ground.

At the end of Week 12, four teams are still alive in the race for a spot in the SEC Championship Game: undefeated Texas A&M, one-loss Georgia, and one-loss Ole Miss. These teams have either fewer losses than Texas or hold important tiebreakers. Because of that, Texas can’t pass them in the standings, even if the Longhorns win out.

Georgia has already finished its SEC schedule, while Alabama still needs to beat Auburn to secure its place in the title game. Ole Miss is technically still in the mix, but it sits behind Alabama because of a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. With the top spots locked up among these four teams, Texas is officially out of the SEC title race.