Iowa has never made the College Football Playoff since its 2014 launch. The closest the Hawkeyes came was in 2015, when they entered the Big Ten Championship 12-0 before a loss to Michigan State left them No. 5 in the final CFP rankings. More than a decade later, Ferentz is still betting on defense, field position, and the run game, with quarterback remaining Iowa’s biggest question mark. Now, Kirk Herbstreit has weighed in on just how far that formula can take them.

Though Herbstreit acknowledged Iowa’s unresolved quarterback battle, he believes the Hawkeyes are strong enough elsewhere to compensate. In his view, the roster still has the pieces to push Iowa toward the nine- or ten-win range that has become familiar under Kirk Ferentz. His concern, however, is whether the Hawkeyes can sustain that level against the toughest part of their schedule.

“I feel like they are every year [playoff contender],” Herbstreit said, according to an X post by the Pat McAfee show. “But I just, I always look at Iowa with Kirk Ferentz as a team that is always knocking on that 10-win mark. I think they’ve averaged nine wins over the last, I don’t know how many years. I don’t think they get credit … because of the style of ball that they play.”

Herbstreit expressed confidence in defensive coordinator Phil Parker, whose work has earned respect inside the sport despite receiving less national attention. Parker has been with Iowa since 1999 and has served as the Hawkeyes’ DC since 2012, helping build a defense that has been one of the program’s biggest strengths. That reputation is backed by numbers, as Iowa finished 2025 eighth nationally in scoring defense at 15.6 points allowed per game and ninth in total defense at 280.4 yards per game.

The Hawkeyes have also ranked inside the top 20 nationally in scoring defense for 11 straight seasons.

While mentioning that Iowa often relies on field position and limiting opponents, Herbstreit also said that quarterback play becomes important as the offense has to make the most of its opportunities. Hank Brown has now earned the start against Iowa State after directing touchdown drives on Iowa’s first three possessions in Week 1, though Jeremy Hecklinski is still expected to see action.

The ESPN analyst believes a steady quarterback could be enough to let Iowa’s defense-first identity carry the team through a tough schedule.

“Oh, boy, if you go 2-1, and at Michigan, at Washington, Minnesota, I know that’s on the road in a rivalry game, Wisconsin, you’re right,” Herbstreit said. “If you get to 2-1, there’s a really good opportunity for them to make a run there. Because, you know, who’s going to beat them? Tell me who’s going to beat them after they get through that three-week stretch. Have you settled on that quarterback?”

The Hawkeyes face Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington in three straight weeks, forming the toughest stretch of their early schedule. Herbstreit also noted that though Iowa could win nine or ten games, the bigger question is whether the Hawkeyes have what it takes to compete against the Big Ten’s best when the stakes are highest.

Herbstreit also ran a theory that if Iowa manages to go 2-1 through that three-game stretch, it could put the Hawkeyes in a strong position heading into November, especially if the quarterback avoids turnovers and gives Parker’s defense enough support. But before that three-game gauntlet, Iowa has to get through a rivalry game that dates back to 1894.

After a 40-0 win over Northern Illinois in Week 1, Iowa now turns to Iowa State for the 73rd Cy-Hawk meeting on September 12 at Kinnick Stadium. The Week 1 shutout also reinforced Herbstreit’s point, as Iowa held Northern Illinois to just 120 total yards. Iowa leads the Cy-Hawk series 47-25, but the Cyclones have won two straight and three of the last four meetings, including a 16-13 victory last year. With both teams heading into the rivalry game after Week 1 wins, the Hawkeyes will have to get past Iowa State before the schedule gets significantly tougher.