Kirk Herbstreit just casually dropped one of the most intriguing tea leaves of the college football season. The ESPN analyst was doing his usual thing on College GameDay at Salt Lake City when he hinted that he had his eye on a specific destination for next week. And he’s not being particularly subtle about it, especially when it comes to Patrick Mahomes showing up as the guest picker if everything lines up just right.

Kirk Herbstreit laid out his thinking pretty candidly, basically saying that on College GameDay, the crew doesn’t necessarily cheer for teams. “We don’t generally cheer for teams. We cheer for our picks,” he said. “But generally, the way things work on college gameday, if we are excited about a potential side of the college gameday, like next week, if we could go to Lubbock, Mahomes is off, maybe he is there at the show.” There’s the setup right there. Lubbock, a potential ranked matchup, and the window for one of college football’s biggest stars to make an appearance.

He wasn’t done laying it out. “How much excitement would that be with a big showdown with BYU?” Kirk Herbstreit continued, really painting the picture. “So, what I am saying is, when Kansas State wins this game, it’s just with the football gods. It’s not our fault. We wanna go to Lubbock. But they’re gonna lose today because we want to go. But I’m picking Texas Tech.” That’s the thing. He’s admitting that GameDay wants to be in Lubbock for that massive BYU-Texas Tech clash in Week 11. And the only way that happens is if the Red Raiders handle their business against Kansas State this weekend.

Now, about Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes is the most prominent figure in modern Texas Tech football history. The Chiefs’ star quarterback played three seasons for the Red Raiders (2014-16) and donated $5 million to the program just last year, naming rights on their new football facility included. With the Chiefs on a bye week during that stretch, Mahomes being available as a guest picker on GameDay in his old stomping grounds is exactly the star power ESPN dreams about. 

You’ve got a Super Bowl champion, an NFL MVP candidate, coming back to his college town for a massive Big 12 matchup. Kirk Herbstreit knows it. ESPN knows it. That’s why the odds of GameDay being in Lubbock for BYU-Texas Tech are sitting at a whopping 80%, way ahead of any other Week 11 destination. All of it hinges on what happens in Manhattan on Saturday afternoon, and that’s the beautiful simplicity of Herbstreit’s whole thing.​

Today’s matchup itself is absolutely worth the hype Herbstreit’s generating. No. 13 Texas Tech is heading to Manhattan to take on Kansas State. And the Red Raiders are seven-point favorites. Texas Tech’s been absolutely dominant. Their defense has been historically stingy, allowing just 68.1 rushing yards per game (ranked 1st in FBS) and 12.4 points per game overall.

They demolished Oklahoma State 42-0 last week, and quarterback Behren Morton’s back is healthy after an injury that sidelined him earlier. Kansas State’s been all over the place this season. But they’ve won eight straight against Tech historically. That streak ends here, though. If Texas Tech wins, they set up that Week 11 showdown with unbeaten BYU that GameDay is absolutely salivating for. Especially with the Cougars sitting at No. 10 nationally.​

The missing piece finally returns

When Behren Morton is healthy and on the field, Texas Tech’s offense is genuinely one of the most dangerous units in the Big 12. But the Red Raiders haven’t been able to get a full, solid look at what that really looks like for a consistent stretch this season, mainly because Morton’s been battling injuries left and right. 

With him finally cleared to go against Kansas State, offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich isn’t hiding his optimism. “You hope Behren gets back to playing like he was playing before, before his injury,” Leftwich said during the Monday press conference. That’s the whole ballgame right there. When Morton’s been available and rolling, the numbers back it up. He’s sitting at 1,501 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions on the season. 

More importantly, in his initial five starts before getting dinged up, he was averaging around 280 passing yards per game with a ridiculous 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s the version of Morton that Texas Tech needs out there if they’re going to handle their business and potentially set up that massive GameDay showdown we talked about.

The vertical passing game has been there when Morton’s on the field, and Leftwich knows it. “You look statistically, our explosive passes were really good when he’s been playing quarterback for us,” the offensive coordinator explained. “So hopefully we can pick up where we left off.” With Will Hammond now done for the season after a knee injury and third-stringer Mitch Griffis having done a respectable job in limited action, it’s clear the Red Raiders need their guy back.