This Saturday, undefeated SEC rivals collide as Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss hosts Brian Kelly’s LSU. Although the Tigers, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier, average 35 PPG and threw for 275 yards per contest, which is 31st in the nation, they struggled on the ground, ranking 112th in rushing with just 116 YPG. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has stormed to a 4-0 start, rolling past Arkansas and Kentucky before crushing Tulane 45-10. And stepping in for injured starter Austin Simmons, QB Trinidad Chambliss has completed nearly 68 percent of his passes for 719 yards. But that’s not all; he also racked up 6 TDs, powering the nation’s No. 9 overall offense. So, SEC bragging rights are at stake, but the real question is: who’s got the edge?

The CFB Power Index sees a potential shake-up as LSU heads to Ole Miss, with the Tigers facing their toughest road test yet. The models give the Rebels the edge, projecting an outright win in 73.3 percent of simulations. That leaves LSU favored in just 26.7 percent of scenarios. Even at FanDuel Sportsbook, Ole Miss sits as a slim -1.5 favorite. And oddsmakers believe there will be a lot of scoring, with the over/under set at 54.5 points. But with playoff stakes in play, Josh Pate is looking at this matchup through a different lens.

On his September 24th appearance on Bussin’ With The Boys with Taylor Lewan and Will Compton, Josh Pate didn’t hold back. “No, I don’t. I feel the side,” he joked, even tossing in a shot at Lane Kiffin: “I don’t know if FanDuel offers a you-and-Lane-style parlay where you just bet your gut on a side and then take whatever Lane says on the total.” But then Pate got serious about LSU’s biggest flaw. “The problem I had last year, and it’s happening again, they asked Garrett Nussmeier to do too much because they couldn’t run the ball,” he said. Here, the numbers tell the story: LSU ranks 31st in passing but a shocking 112th in rushing. That’s a glaring red flag, according to Pate. So, what’s LSU’s move?

Josh Pate didn’t hold back on LSU’s approach. “You’re telling me you’re going to break it all out this week? LSU has the ability to run—the style of ball they should always play. Well, that’s good. You’ll break it out this week,” he said. But the reality? So far, they haven’t. Ole Miss can be attacked on the ground; they rank 122nd in run defense, but if LSU’s weakness matches their opponent’s, it cancels out. Here, Pate expects Nussmeier to be forced into too many obvious passing situations. Because, unlike Florida or Clemson, Ole Miss won’t stall. “Lane’s going to score. He told you to take the over. He’s not telling you to take the over because they’ll hang 17 points through four quarters—they’re going to score,” warned Pate. But why is Pate leaning on Ole Miss’ offense over LSU’s QB play?

LSU is facing QB depth issues with Nussmeier battling lingering knee tendinitis. While Michael Van Buren offers experience, most of the backups are new or have limited starting experience. Ole Miss, on the other hand, boasts solid QB depth. Although people keep asking, “Which quarterback will they roll with?” But Josh Pate isn’t worried. “It’s not a quarterback controversy. That’s just depth. And that’s just having a good roster,” he said. So that depth, paired with Ole Miss’ balanced offense, is why Pate is backing the Rebels. “I’m taking Ole Miss to win because it’s by far the best offensive attack LSU will have faced,” he added. But is Ole Miss fully healthy heading into the LSU game?

Ole Miss player availability

As Ole Miss heads back into SEC action, the Rebels released their Wednesday availability report, highlighting 4 key players. Most notably, Austin Simmons didn’t appear on the list, leaving fans wondering about the QB situation. But WR Devin Price is officially out, while OL John Wayne Oliver and DB Jaylon Braxton are listed as questionable. Although WR Traylon Ray is considered probable. But who will start at quarterback?

Reports surfaced from Pete Nakos and Chris Low confirming that Trinidad Chambliss is expected to start at QB this weekend. Because Chambliss has delivered in previous games. Despite the buzz, HC Lane Kiffin joined the Pat McAfee Show to clarify that no official starter has been named.

Now with Simmons absent from the injury report, Kiffin hinted that the star QB could still be available if needed. But the decision looms large as Ole Miss prepares to face a tough LSU defense.