The Wisconsin Badgers handed USC and Lincoln Riley a reality check last week, dominating the Trojans 24-7 and exposing cracks that are becoming harder to ignore. For Riley, this was more than just another loss; it was the kind of defeat that puts a coach’s future under the microscope. With the pressure mounting in Los Angeles, NBC analyst Dan Patrick added another twist with a prediction.
“It feels like it’s a foregone conclusion at USC that Lincoln Riley will not be back,” Patrick predicted on the Dan Patrick Show posted on X. “You’ve got Ohio State coming up this weekend. Now you host Ohio State. This might be the biggest game of his career when you think about it… I wonder, Lincoln Riley is going to want to go to a place that doesn’t have the spotlight that USC has had.”
His comments come after industry insiders told USA Today Sports’ John Brice that turmoil has been brewing inside the Trojans’ locker room. A source close to the USC football program described Riley’s relationship with the program’s leadership as an “unhappy marriage,” following the recent defeat against the Badgers.
Adding to the growing uncertainty, another insider with firsthand knowledge delivered an even more chilling verdict.
“Let him lose to Ohio State, without a quarterback, and things are really going to get uncomfortable,” the source told Brice. “It’s already clear this isn’t a fit for either side… Both sides know it.”
However, it’s not that simple. Parting ways with Riley could be costly for USC, which would reportedly owe him a $57 million buyout if it fired him. But if USC became persistent, a separate contract provision could work in the other direction.
Following the departure of athletic director Mike Bohn, who brought Riley to USC, the Trojans appointed Jennifer Cohen to take over. The reason why this information is important is a clause in Riley’s contract. It states that the buyout he would normally owe USC for leaving could be waived under certain conditions, reportedly including a change in athletic director.
In simple terms, Riley would not owe a buyout if he chose to leave USC on his own. However, with speculation mounting that the Trojans could eventually show him the door, Patrick believes Riley should consider leaving before things take a turn for the worse and explore opportunities elsewhere.
Patrick also revealed that two of his colleagues have different predictions about Riley’s next destination, with one predicting Baylor and the other pointing toward TCU.
Wherever he ends up, Patrick believes one thing is clear: Riley’s time at USC should come to an end.
“I don’t know if Lincoln Riley has ever felt comfortable there in Southern California,” Patrick added. “I know he got paid to be comfortable, but I was told there was some real consternation of, does he even want to coach this season, coming into this season? Was he going to be there to coach? Whether that’s true or not, that’s from somebody who I spoke to.”
Riley came to USC following an impressive tenure at Oklahoma, taking over the reins from Clay Helton with high expectations. He wasted no time making his mark, guiding the Trojans to an 11-2 record in his first season, a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance and a spot in the Cotton Bowl, while quarterback Caleb Williams claimed the Heisman Trophy.
However, the early promise soon began to fade, leaving USC searching for answers. Since 2022, the Trojans have failed to record a double-digit-win season and are still waiting to make their first College Football Playoff appearance.
This season has offered little relief, either, as they sit at 6-2, with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance amid a challenging schedule ahead.