Lincoln Riley’s time at USC has been a strange journey. He arrived in Hollywood with big promises and top recruits, but then faced two challenging seasons that made people question if the flash was more important than real success. After an 11-3 record in Year 1, Year 2 finished at 8-5, putting Riley on the hot seat for Year 3. But even as the team’s performance dipped, Riley and recruiting expert Chad Bowden are excelling off the field. With the No. 1 recruiting class in the country for 2026 and their recruiting board getting stronger daily, Riley is set to finish loud again.

USC’s 2023 and 2024 seasons were flops. Riley opened his L.A. run with an 11–3 bang and a Heisman winner in Caleb Williams. Since then? A slow drip to mediocrity. But recruiting? That’s been the life raft. After two lukewarm cycles ranked No. 15 or worse, USC’s 2026 class is an all-out blitz. As of June 22, the Trojans are sitting on top of the recruiting world with the No. 1-ranked class. While most Power 4 squads have 15-ish commits, USC is stacked with 30!

Out of those 30, one’s a five-star, 19 are four-stars, and 10 are solid three-stars—many on the verge of that coveted blue-chip status. Despite losing elite linebacker Xavier Griffin, who bounced last month, USC filled that void. 1 week later, they pulled in five-star tight end Mark Bowman—one of the nastiest mismatch nightmares in the class. And Bowman isn’t walking into L.A. alone.

He joins QB Jonas Williams (flipped from Oregon), D-lineman Tomuhini Topui (also poached from the Ducks), and elite OT Keenyi Pepe. Let’s just say Lincoln Riley might not have a Big 10 title, but he’s outmaneuvering the Big Ten bluebloods on the trail right now. The cherry on top? There are still a few pieces left to finish this puzzle.

On June 22nd, a plugged-in USC insider jumped on On3’s Josh Newberg Show and pulled back the curtain on Riley’s final board. “It’s really down to just three guys,” he revealed. “It’s down to Breck Kolojay, offensive lineman from IMG Academy. He’s been a longtime kind of friend of a few guys. Kannon Smith is committed to USC; he’s from Colorado. And Breck is from Colorado….and then the other two left are Jalen Lott and Boobie Feaster.”

Breck Kolojay might be the biggest fish left. He’s got size (6’6″, 315 lbs), smarts (3.7 GPA), and a background with USC commits like Kannon Smith and Bowman—childhood teammates from Colorado. The insider spilled the tea: “Mark Bowman played youth football with these two guys in Colorado. He was actually their quarterback. So there’s a close relationship there. I guess the families—Bowman’s family and Kolojay’s family—are exceptionally tight as well. So that might bode well for USC.” 

Then there’s Lott and Feaster—both Texas players, both electric playmakers, both with LSU, Oregon, and A&M breathing down their necks. USC wants one. Maybe both. The crystal ball on Lott? The insider admitted they might’ve jumped the gun with that early prediction, but USC still likes their chances. It’s hard to understate how big these final moves are. Lincoln Riley’s staff is rounding out what could be the deepest, most balanced class of his career. “If we can close on just one or two of these guys,” the insider added, “we’re talking about one of the greatest classes USC’s had in decades.”

Give Lincoln Riley and GM Chad Bowden their flowers—they fixed a major leak. One of the biggest knocks on Riley since coming to L.A.? He couldn’t close on California talent. But this 2026 class? Sixty percent of it is Golden State gold. Riley is reconnecting with local high school coaches, and USC is now securing elite local talent like CB Elbert Hill, EDGE Simote Katoanga, and DL Jaimeon Winfield, all top-100 recruits.

Can Lincoln Riley win big in the 2025 season?

Recruiting’s cute. But Trojan fans aren’t handing out parades for paper championships. Can Lincoln Riley finally turn his past five-star recruits into a real win in 2025? Vegas doesn’t exactly think so—FanDuel has the over/under at 7.5 wins, and ESPN’s FPI pegs USC at 8.3. Not bad. Not scary either.

In six years as a head coach (OU and USC), Riley has zero national titles. Athlon Sports recently dropped its list of coaches most likely to win their first natty in 2025—and guess who wasn’t on it? Riley. But here’s where things get interesting. Riley made the “long-shot” cut, meaning there’s a quiet but growing belief that USC’s about to make a leap.

The Big Ten grind is real. USC limped to a 4-5 conference record in its first year in the league, finishing tenth. That’s not Playoff material. But the 2025 slate gives them a chance to rewrite that narrative quickly. Circle September 27th against Illinois. The Illini finished 10-3 last year and return QB Luke Altmyer. That early Big Ten clash could be USC’s statement game.

But the real hope? It’s riding on Jayden Maiava. The former backup took over when Miller Moss struggled, and in four starts, Maiava balled out: 1,201 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. He finished strong, including a comeback win over Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl. Wideouts Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane also showed out, combining for over 1,200 yards and 15 scores. They’re ready to be stars.

Defensively, USC isn’t the joke it used to be. Under D’Anton Lynn, the Trojans made legitimate strides, and adding vet coaches like Rob Ryan only bolsters their defensive IQ. Add in four-star DL Jahkeem Stewart from the portal, and suddenly this isn’t a team that has to score 50 to win. Still, if USC gets rolling early—and handles its Big Ten business—they’ll be in the playoff convo.