When Garrett Nussmeier entered the 2025 season, he was at the top of the food chain when it came to the Heisman. Unfortunately, LSU’s 2025 campaign didn’t unravel the way it was supposed to, and that hurt Nussmeier’s draft stock. Despite getting benched, coming back, and winning Senior Bowl MVP, an LSU legend is still concerned about Nuss’ game.

On February 10, LSU legend Tyrann Mathieu hopped onto his Into the Bayou podcast and shared where Garrett Nussmeier fits and what his ceiling might be.

“I don’t think [Garrett] is a Day 1 starter—he’s not Jayden Daniels to me. But I do think he can have a career like Kirk Cousins. You know, those first two or three years, you’re still developing, and then boom. I do think he could become a franchise quarterback,” Tyrann Mathieu said in a concerned tone.

Kirk Cousins has to be the perfect pro comparison for Nussmeier. Cousins was drafted on Day 3 of the 2012 NFL Draft by the same team as top-2 pick RG3. He had to wait for years to learn the system before he became the face of the franchise. When RG3 went down with an injury, Kirk’s time arrived. And he hasn’t looked back since. He eventually bagged a $180 million contract with the Falcons back in 2024. That patient-development arc mirrors what many folks project for Nussmeier.

However, Garrett’s situation entering 2025 was very different. Cousins entered the league with little to no hype and expectation. But analysts viewed Nussmeier as one of the best, if not the best, quarterback prospects heading into his senior year.

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After throwing for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024 as a first-time starter, many folks bet their house on Nussmeier’s stock. Unfortunately, the football gods decided to short his stock in his senior season. One of the main reasons was that he battled a painful abdominal and core injury almost the entire season.

He tried to tough it out for nine games, but he eventually had to sit out the rest of the season after the Alabama game in November. Because he couldn’t use his core muscles properly, he wasn’t able to put his usual “zip” on the ball, which made his stats look a little different than the year before.

Nussmeier put up bad numbers for a QB1. He finished the season completing 194 of 288 passes (a sharp 67.4%) for 1,927 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also threw five interceptions, four of which were very questionable. It got to the point that Frank Wilson sat him out for a second-string QB with little to no experience. Just like that, he went from a projected top-three pick to a disappointed senior.

It reminds you of one of the most famous historical examples.

Dan Marino and the Pittsburgh case

After a legendary junior year (34 TDs), Marino’s senior season was one heck of a disappointment. The former Panther threw just 17 touchdowns, and his team’s record dipped. Despite that slump, the Miami Dolphins still drafted him at the end of the first round in the 1983 NFL Draft. That’s not going to be the case for Garrett Nussmeier.

Despite the late-season struggles, Nussmeier left his mark on the LSU record books. He finished his career as the No. 3 all-time passer in school history with 7,699 total yards. He trailed only legends Tommy Hodson and Joe Burrow. That production is why NFL scouts were so interested in him at the Senior Bowl in late January. Luckily, he balled out to MVP and appeared to be healthy. That helped with his draft stock. But not very much.

Right now, draft experts are all over the place on where he’ll go. Some are calling him a Day 3 pick (Rounds 5 or 6), and others are viewing him as a mid-round game manager. Mathieu, however, firmly believes Nussmeier could become the face of a franchise. But just not a Day 1 starter, at least for the first few years.