Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin walked out of Davis Wade Stadium on Friday night weighing two heavy options. Ole Miss or LSU. After the No. 7 Rebels polished off Mississippi State 38-19 in the Egg Bowl, he simply said he’d decide by Saturday. And that silence lit the fuse for a wild coaching domino race of the SEC cycle. Ole Miss AD Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce want an answer. LSU wants the answer. Because if not Lane Kiffin, then who? And that’s when Matt Moscona dropped the hammer.

“It’s my understanding that if Kiffin decides to stay at Ole Miss, LSU would very quickly give the job to Sumrall,” he said in an episode on Overtime With Matt Moscona on November 28. “Florida has zeroed in on Jon Sumrall… They’re sitting there trying to push Sumrall for an answer, knowing full well that Kiffin is going to pick Ole Miss or LSU. Whichever one Kiffin doesn’t pick is going to pick Sumrall.”

Florida sensed Lane Kiffin wasn’t serious after weird communication patterns. So now, Florida and LSU are basically wrestling over the same coach while waiting on the same man. But to the pain of the Gators, Jon Sumrall currently holds the second-best odds at 16%, per Kalshi, to become LSU’s next HC. If there’s movement, it will come down to one point – LSU’s money. The Tigers are reportedly preparing a $90 million offer for Lane Kiffin, plus $25 million annually in roster cash. If Kiffin walks, Sumrall could command a similarly massive check. But Tulane’s own rise complicates the equation. If the Green Wave wins the AAC and earns the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff bid, expectations in New Orleans are that the HC will stay through their postseason run.

“If my ultimate goal is just to be a Power Four head coach, I wouldn’t be at Tulane,” he said. “I’ve had those opportunities. If my ultimate goal was just to make the biggest paycheck, I wouldn’t be at Tulane. Other people have offered me more money than I make here. I love where I’m at. I love what I do.”

Jon Sumrall’s resume includes back-to-back Sun Belt titles at Troy, a 23-4 record, and a Sun Belt Coach of the Year trophy. Then, in 2024, he walks into Tulane and immediately lands a 9-5 season and an AAC title shot. This year is a crisp 9-2 with a chance to clinch the AAC Championship berth by beating Charlotte. It’s a Plan B that feels a whole lot like Plan A1.

His contract is signed through 2029 with a salary of around $3 million. He has SEC experience playing linebacker at Kentucky, coaching at Ole Miss, and at Kentucky. He knows the territory, the culture, and the grind. He checks every box LSU wants if Lane Kiffin ghosts them. But LSU had another name lurking. Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz. But the Tigers locked him down with a monster $10.7M-per-year extension. But here’s the hilarious twist. The buyout didn’t change. So technically, he can still leave. All this confusion can be cleared with one comment from Kiffin, but he likes to keep people guessing. 

Lane Kiffin on his coaching future decision 

Speaking of Lane Kiffin, his Saturday decision isn’t coming from a war room. 

“Yeah, I haven’t. Maybe that surprises you. But, you know, I’ve got to do some praying and figure this thing out,” he said when asked if he’d made a decision about where he’ll coach next season.

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Lane Kiffin added he’d be spending Friday night at his son’s high school playoff game in Tupelo. 

“Tonight, I’m going to go be a dad and watch a more important game to me.”

As for his decision, even he didn’t know. 

‘There’s a lot [that goes] into it,” he admitted. “It’s a hard decision… we get paid a lot so I understand we’re under a lot of spotlight and scrutiny.”

It’s a massive choice. One he wishes he could talk to his father Monte, about. One he’s run by Nick Saban and Pete Carroll. One that sits atop a 54-19 Ole Miss record that ranks behind only Bama and Georgia since 2020. He makes $9 million now, has up to $2.6 million in bonuses, and carries a $36.6 million buyout if fired in 2025. He has leverage everywhere, and that’s why nobody can force him to hurry.

Whether he stays in Oxford or seeks a fresh opportunity, his decision will define the next chapter not just for him, but for multiple SEC programs fighting for relevance and stability. But if he doesn’t choose LSU, the Tigers already know exactly whose phone they’re dialing.