Tiger Stadium hosts the 89th iteration of the annual “Saban Bowl” this Saturday. LSU Tigers (6-2) host The Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2). As if the game needed any consequential, higher stakes both teams take to the gridiron with their seasons on the line. Lose this one and you’re out of the CFP sweepstakes. ESPN CFB analyst Greg McElroy broke down the facets that will potentially move the needle for either team and adjudged his winner. Safe to say Brian Kelly will not be stoked to hear the ruling.

In the latest rendition of his “Always College Football” podcast, McElroy said “I’ll take Alabama. Alabama’s defense is improving significantly. Their young players are growing up. Their perimeter players, I think are going to be okay in this matchup and that’s where this game might be won and lost. I think Garrett Nussmeier throws an interception or two and [I think] Alabama’s rushing attack is what ultimately tips the scales in their favor”.

McElroy expects Nussmeier’s woes to continue. The redshirt junior has thrown 7 picks in the last 4 games, including 3 in one half in the aforementioned loss to the Aggies. All season, the offensive line has effectively protected Nuss in the pocket. But an injury to left guard Garrett Dellinger keeps him out of this tie. This could mean the Crimson Tide pass rush finds some gaps to outdo a patched-up O-line. 

Both teams come into the game off a bye, with contrasting results directly prior. Kelly’s team had a 2nd half collapse away to Texas A&M en route to a 23-38 loss. Kalen DeBoer’s team, on the other hand, came off from much sunnier pastures. They shut out the Missouri Tigers, 34-0. Looking ahead to the weekend, Greg McElroy believes his former team will build upon that defensive showing and triumph on enemy territory.

Oddsmakers agree with McElroy’s sentiment as Bama are 2.5-point favorites. A win would be the biggest away result in the DeBoer era and set them up for an outside shot at making a deep playoff run. Brian Kelly would need to find ways to score on a defense on the up. It’ll start with bringing some multidimensionality to his offense.

LSU Tigers’ woeful rush attack holding Nussmeier back?

LSU’s rush offense ranks 111th in college football. Their run game makes up only 26% of their offensive load. 127 different teams ranked better. Nussmeier has to pick up a lot of load in an unbalanced offense. With virtually no help from his run game, he tends to make difficult throws, which explains the turnover troubles.

A run game this week is bizarre for a program of this stature, especially behind an elite O-line. An ode to how well the Tigers offensive line has been is that Nuss has been sacked only 4 times all season. This is the 2nd fewest in football. McElroy gave his thoughts on this predicament. He said “There’s two schools of thought here when it comes to LSU’s rushing attack. I personally believe that there is a can’t and there is a haven’t when it comes to evaluating teams at this point of the season. I’m not willing to say that LSU can’t run the football. I think they can”.

LSU-Alabama matchups have resulted in the most overtime games since the rule was introduced. These games are close, cagey affairs decided by the barest of margins. A lot more than just pride and the playoffs is on the line. Brian Kelly and Co. will need to bring some duality to their play calling to drive down the field on a tough defense.