Programs betting large sums of money on potential is not exactly a new storyline. Arch Manning roughly makes $6 million. Then there was the whole Carson Beck NIL chatter. Now, bringing Miami back into the spotlight this time is No. 1 OT with a $2.5 million gamble. And, like always, verdicts are flying all around, and Mario Cristobal is at the center of it.

“If Jackson Cantwell actually got $5 million over three years, that’s a big risk,” one SEC general manager said in On3’s survey of 13 Power Four GMs and NIL personnel where the goal was to understand the NIL recruiting cycle, in terms of which programs spent the most, which recruits commanded jaw-dropping deals, and which staffs believe they’re using their money smarter than the competition.

Here’s the thing, though: Miami isn’t backing down from flexing its NIL dominance, and its investment in Jackson Cantwell shows it. Since the start of his recruiting trail, Cantwell showed heavy interest in joining Georgia, especially after visiting Athens, but the edge suddenly shifted to Miami in the final moments. While Cantwell did explain that his comfort level with the program drove his decision, financial aspects are hard to ignore.

Miami first offered Cantwell a $2 million NIL deal, but weeks later, that figure rose to $5 million, averaging $2.5 million per year, just the night before his commitment. That amount made him the highest-paid high school recruit. This price tag, however, is justified to some degree.

As a Nixa High School standout offensive tackle, he was the Gatorade National Player of the Year. In 2024, he recorded 158 pancake blocks. Then in 2025, he recorded 173 pancake blocks, averaging 45.8 points per game as a team.

But keeping in mind the high investment, if he fails to deliver on the field, things might turn ugly for both Miami and Jackson Cantwell. That’s something we have seen previously with Bryce Underwood, who came in with his $10.5 million. The skepticism made his path harder. He did show promising performance, but those turnovers made things worse for him. Likewise, one such fall has the potential to put Cantwell in the same situation. Again, though, it is only one side of the coin.

Remember when Carson Beck came in with a $4 million deal at Miami? Sure, skepticism was louder than ever, but he proved himself. He started all 16 games for Miami, led the Hurricanes to a 13-3 mark, and set a school record by completing 72.4% of his passes.

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So, even if there is a major concern about his performance, he may still be worth the shot. Till then, though, criticism will follow from all sides.

Jackson Cantwell faces another major blow

As per On3’s conversations with general managers, when asked how rankings, such as moving from a three-star to a four-star or from a four-star to a five-star, impact contract negotiations, every general manager acknowledged that star rankings are brought up during recruitment.

And as Jackson Cantwell enters Miami with his five-star status, an ACC general manager has delivered a sharp verdict.

“Yes, all the time,” an ACC general manager told On3. “At the beginning of NIL, a lot of people were using the star system to evaluate market tiers. But we don’t care. We care about how quickly you can offer a return.”

Another SEC staffer said that “when guys get recruiting bumps, people come at our guys pretty hard.”

One more SEC general manager acknowledged that players often use that status as their backing to demand more money from the teams, but that doesn’t really guarantee their solid performance in the college field. In this new era of NIL and the transfer portal, the play-for-pay system has taken off on the wrong foot. Players don’t actually want to develop but earn big amounts.

Arch Manning, who earns around $6 million, also flinched this season when pressure came right onto him. So, now it will be interesting to see if Jackson Cantwell changes that notion for Miami or not.