Ranking 14th in the nation with an 83.5 QBR score, Lincoln Kienholz is suddenly making noise across college football. The former Ohio State backup has transformed Louisville into a top-15 threat in just three full-time starts. For Mario Cristobal, watching another ACC quarterback catch fire is the last thing Miami needs as conference play heats up.

Miami enters this stretch sitting clean at 3-0, but Cristobal cannot afford any late-season stumbles if he wants to get the Hurricanes back into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Kienholz’s rapid rise gives Louisville the dual-threat firepower to stay undefeated in ACC play, creating a roadblock for Miami’s title hopes.

CBS analyst Brandon Marcello highlighted this exact danger during a recent appearance on CBS Sports College Football alongside Richard Johnson and Brad Crawford.

“This is going to be a team I think could actually challenge Miami because Lincoln Kienholz has become one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC,” Marcello said. “And I would argue one of the top 20, maybe top 15 quarterbacks in the country, and he’s just now getting into what his third or fourth game as a full-time starter. So I love this Louisville team.”

Even though Miami and Louisville do not play against each other in the regular season schedule, the threat is very real. Both teams are fighting for the top two spots in the ACC standings to reach the conference championship game. If Kienholz keeps winning games for Louisville, he can push Miami down the conference rankings and ruin their path to both the ACC title and the College Football Playoff.

The numbers tell the story of how tight this race is getting. Miami came into the season as the heavy ACC favorite, but oddsmakers now give Louisville the third-best odds to steal the conference title and secure an automatic playoff berth. Every win Kienholz picks up narrows Miami’s room for error, meaning a single loss in conference play could lock Cristobal’s team out of the ACC Championship Game completely.

Meanwhile, Kienholz’s transfer portal move in January changed everything for head coach Jeff Brohm for the good. The former Buckeye was buried on Ohio State’s crowded depth chart, looking for a spot where he could actually play. Louisville jumped on him the moment he hit the portal, giving him the keys to an aggressive offense that fits his running and throwing ability perfectly.

After sitting on the bench in Columbus, Kienholz is making the most of his second chance. Leading Louisville to a key victory against the SMU Mustangs proved that the Cardinals are not just making noise in the ACC, but are serious playoff contenders.

Kienholz has emerged as a pleasant surprise this season and was waiting for a chance to prove his worth. On3’s Steve Samra recently released USA Today’s list of best QBs to watch. While Kienholz isn’t grouped with the likes of Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Texas’ Arch Manning, he is a Tier-2, all-conference production QB.

So far this season, Kienholz has completed 48 passes out of 73 for 816 passing yards and six passing touchdowns. Apart from his passing game, Miami also has to worry about his rushing abilities. Kienholz carried the ball 32 times for 153 rushing yards and four rushing TDs. 

After his stunning Week 2 performance, where he recorded 332 passing yards for 2 TDs and completed 16 of 21 passes with 2 rushing TDs, Kienholz has Desmond Howard rooting for him. 

“He’s a dual threat. Fantastic runner. Reading the left end. The left end widens out. Great blocking up front. Watch Kienholz,” the 1991 Heisman-winning wide receiver told viewers. “Not only is he a willing runner, this guy loves to run the ball. He gets better after contact, averaging 5.5 yards of carry. Already three touchdowns on the ground this season…There’s never a dead play when Kienholz is behind center. I love what I’ve seen so far from this young man.”

Miami’s turnover drought meets Louisville’s attack

Howard’s praise is a warning for the Cristobal-led ACC 1-0 Hurricanes, whose last outing roughed up the roster significantly. Moreover, the Hurricanes themselves have something to worry about. So far, their defense has yet to force a turnover. The Hurricanes have not made an interception, a fumble recovery, or a turnover on downs. This shortcoming in front of the Cardinals’ offense could prove to be fatal. More so if they make the improvement Marcello pitched. 

“Louisville, best running back tandem, I think, in the country, and they’re only going to get better. The one thing is the defense; if it gets better,” Marcello said. 

All the Hurricanes have logged are 11 passes broken up. “We’ve gotten tips, overthrows, and hands on the football,” defensive coordinator Corey Heterman said in Monday’s media availability. “We’re going to get one; I’m hoping it’s soon, but we’re going to continue to attack. We’ve had a couple of opportunities; it just hasn’t happened yet.”

Both teams have much to gain and lose. Who triumphs eventually would be interesting to see.