The 2025 season hasn’t even started, but the head coaching seats are already heating up. Some coaches will get a chance to save their jobs, while others might be let go by season’s end. Kentucky Wildcats’ head coach, Mark Stoops, is definitely on that hot seat list. That’s just how ruthless college football can be. Yet, paradoxically, that ruthlessness might be keeping him safe for now.

Stoops holds a program-best record of 77-73 over his 12 years leading the Wildcats. However, he just wrapped up one of his worst seasons, finishing with a 4-8 record. It’s clear the ground is slowly shifting beneath Stoops’ feet, but he has a substantial $44 million safety net.

The 2024 season was absolute chaos for the Wildcats. Stoops’ defense struggled, ranking 54th nationally in defensive stop rate, allowing 1.95 points per drive. The offense also faltered, ranking 21st in the nation with an average of 12.45 yards per completion. Now, Stoops is grappling with a quarterback dilemma, which he calls an “open competition.” The battle will be between returning sophomore Cutter Boley and experienced transfer Zach Calzada. However, the sooner Stoops resolves this situation, the better, as the clock is definitely ticking for him.

On the June 27th episode of The Paul Finebaum Show, guest SEC Mike shared, “I don’t know how he’s still the coach up there, but again, he’s out recruiting Auburn somehow, so we’ll give him that. How he beat Lane Kiffin, I’ll never know. I mean that that literally cost Ole Miss a spot in the college football playoff. But I believe the over/under is 4 and a half on Kentucky, Paul, and I would bet the under.” Mike’s concerns are valid. With a brutal 2025 schedule, another losing season could put his job in serious jeopardy. Kentucky will host tough teams like No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Tennessee, and No. 9 Ole Miss, where they’re projected as two-touchdown underdogs. They also face other ranked opponents, both at home and on the road.

The analyst continued, “If I was a betting man, so I think it’s another rough year in Lexington, and if Mark Stoops didn’t have a $40 million buyout, I don’t think he’d be the coach in Lexington right now.” The Wildcats won 10 games in 2021 and finished 18th in the AP Poll. They finished 12th in the AP Poll after a 10-win 2018 season. But after that, Stoops’ graph had hit a nosedive. It came with consecutive 7-6 seasons and back-to-back bowl defeats. But the main faceplant came in 2024, engraving Stoops’ name on a hot plate.

The 2024 season saw the first losing season for the football program since 2015, nine whole seasons and eight straight bowl games: a 4-8 record. Stoops’ boys had set a sour mood in the very second week last season in their dispiriting 6-31 loss to South Carolina.

Then came the Wildcats’ unpardonable blunder against Vanderbilt. They were flagged 12 times for a robust 105 yards. All this combined might propel Kentucky to start looking for a new face in the head coaching seat.  What fanned the heat is the fact that the coach has only 2 top-25 recruiting classes in the last 5 cycles. However, can Stoops count on his $44 million safety vest for long, or is it going to lose all the air?   

Mark Stoops leaves Kentucky facing a $44 million double-edged sword

The last time Kentucky signed a brand-new contract extension with Stoops was back in November 2022. With this, he tapped into the list of one of the highest-paid college football coaches. Back then, his buyout was $4.5 million, which further dipped to $4 million and will go further down in July to $3.5 million. Now, that’s how Stoops is falling down on the valuation list, as this is the amount that interested college football programs will have to pay if they want to hire the Wildcats’ head coach. The catch lies on the other side.

If Kentucky wants to cut ties with Stoops, it owes him around $44 million. Now, if they are running low on fortune, then they have to pay in terms of time. For instance, if they are planning to pay 60% of Stoops’ salary, the wait will be two more years. While the program decides on Stoops’ future, the head coach still has avenues open to win back the program’s trust. Here, Paul Finebaum helped him to come out of the maze.

The ESPN analyst shared, “I think there’s a way.  I mean, getting to a bowl, especially when you have a schedule like Kentucky’s, is not impossible. If you win the four nonconference games, now that includes beating Louisville, but that should not be impossible to do. You have four wins and all you need is two more … I think a bowl game is possible. I think Stoops just has to show proof of life.” But the question remains, how serious is the head coach about a turnaround?

Cousin Shane mocked Mark Stoops’ laid-back attitude. “I think he doesn’t care anymore. You know what I’m saying? He’s probably golfing four days a week. He’s just focused on his bourbon, you know, barrels, and growing that business.” Could he be getting a little too comfortable with that $44M cushion, thinking Kentucky won’t make a move?