Ever see a recruit committed to an FCS team rejecting Power 4 offers like Nebraska and Iowa State in the NIL era? How about not switching camps from an FCS team for 4 years when slogging behind veterans as a backup QB? Despite that, North Dakota State QB Cole Payton is gaining serious buzz ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft, and when you look at key metrics, the jump in his stock seems obvious.

Cole Payton’s college numbers put him ahead of the likes of Jayden Daniels, Carson Wentz, and Kyler Murray. He posted the highest accuracy on intermediate throws (10–19 yards) at 60.7% during his lone starting season in 2025. Moreover, Payton’s ‘big time throw’ rate (11.2%) is also higher than all three NFL QBs in their best college seasons.

When considering QBs with an accuracy rate of more than 60% in intermediate throws and a big-time throw rate greater than 7% when kept clean, Payton sits with the likes of Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow. Burrow had a 62.80% intermediate throwing accuracy and boasted a 7 percent big-time throw rate. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, had an impressive 70.60% accuracy and a 7.5% big-time throw rate in his best season. Now, one longtime NFL executive has him next to Fernando Mendoza.

“I get why Mendoza is going first; he has checked every box and met every challenge. And I don’t think he is the best player in the draft,” the executive told NFL Insider Jason La Canfora. “I don’t think this kid from North Dakota State is that far behind him. I really don’t. Two or three years from now, I think he can be there with (Mendoza). People doing the work are seeing it, too. This kid can play.”

While there is a degree of focus on total production, what makes Payton stand out are the critical metrics that teams in the pros look at. For instance, Payton completed 58% of his passes under pressure and had a better big-time throw rate than Jameis Winston, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson. All 4 NFL QBs notched fewer big-time throws, even when success under pressure differed at most by 4%. Kyler Murray, for instance, managed to complete just 55.6% of passes under pressure, and Jameis Winston completed 56.4% in his best college season.

Payton was already gaining traction in NFL circles due to his 2025 season. He passed at a 72% efficiency rate and has 1,919 rushing yards in his college career. But the Bison’s #9 always had to prove that he is more than just a “dual threat” QB.

“I want to prove to people I can throw it, and I know in my heart I can throw it,” Cole Payton said before the 2025 season. “Just all the training I’ve been doing, working on my throwing and working on my mechanics, I feel as confident as ever throwing it around the yard.”

NFL analysts praised Payton’s dual-threat prowess and deemed it a significant factor in elevating his draft stock. To bolster his draft stock even further, Payton lit up the NFL Scouting Combine after a solid performance at the Senior Bowl.

Cole Payton scripts history at the NFL Scouting Combine

Around 15 to 16 QBs are invited every year for the NFL Scouting Combine. With QBs like Carson Beck, Ty Simpson, Drew Allar, and Garrett Nussmeier already throwing, Payton was not on any GM’s priority list. That changed when the NDSU QB started his Combine drills. He jumped 40 inches in the vertical jump and recorded a 10’10” broad jump. Just two QBs in the Combine history have jumped higher than Payton, with one being 2026’s Taylen Green (43.5 inches). Payton also clocked the 40 in 4.56 seconds and did a 1.57-second 10-yard split.

Cole Payton accumulated a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.97 out of 10. That ranks him fourth out of 1,054 QBs who have been tested at the Scouting Combine since 1987. However, Payton’s elite athleticism wasn’t always on the national radar; in fact, his journey began with his home-state team, Nebraska, initially passing on the future star. But, when the 6’3″ and 233 lb QB won Nebraska’s Gatorade Player of the Year in his high school’s senior year, the Huskers paid attention. Payton, though, stayed loyal.

“All I know is that Saturday morning after the state championship, Coach Froendt texted me and said (Nebraska) wanted to talk,” Payton said. “That’s all I know. I just texted him back, ‘Thanks, but no thanks.’ Why talk to them if I know I’m going to say ‘no thanks’? That’s kind of how we went about it. I didn’t want to waste anyone’s time if I knew I was going to stay committed to the Bison.”

The Omaha, Nebraska, native instead stayed put at the Fargo program, citing the “brotherhood” he developed in the recruiting process. He learned from NFL QBs like Carson Wentz (2nd overall), Trey Lance, and Easton Stick, and fostered that brotherhood for four years. Finally, when he returned for his senior season, nothing could stop him.