Pat McAfee has earned a reputation on College GameDay for often backing teams that aren’t the favorites. This gutsy style gave him a 5-4 record in Week 12 of 2025, with some misses but memorable shocks that make GameDay picks exciting. So this time, on Week 13, the 38-year-old is going against SEC powerhouse Auburn and making a case for the FCS team, the Mercer Bears.

“Look for Mercer to not only cover, but outright win against Auburn.” During the College GameDay broadcast, the former Punter made it clear about his prediction. The Tigers are a massive favorite, with a 27.5-point spread and a daunting moneyline of -8000. That means just four touchdowns will be enough for the Tigers to snag a win. But will that be possible with a freshman Deuce Knight making his first proper career start for the Tigers in the absence of Jackson Arnold?

Mercer is set to be an underdog with a +1800 moneyline. That’s a serious gap, but it’s not surprising given Auburn’s SEC power stature versus Mercer’s FCS hot streak.

Auburn has struggled with offense this year, sitting at 4-6 and dealing with a benched QB and coaching drama. On the flip side, Mercer is riding high after a turnaround season, led by their QB, who has completed nearly 69% of his passes. Braden Atkinson has been a star, tossing 3,253 yards and 33 touchdowns. Because of his ability, the Bears have averaged 41.7 points per game, have scored 54 touchdowns, ranking No. 2 passing attack. But even ESPN’s prediction is against them.

The Tigers are predicted to win 94.9%, and that’s because of their solid defense. They have limited opponents’ rushing yards to just 2.7 per carry. It ranks them 3rd in the SEC and 10 nationally. One bright spot is linebacker Xavier Atkins. He’s been huge, leading the SEC in tackles for loss (15.5) and tying for the league lead with 78 total tackles. Maybe Pat McAfee’s prediction can come true.

After all, Auburn and its interim HC D.J Durkin have used their 3 QBs this season. Against the Bears, Deuce Knight will be the one making his proper head start into the season, sharing his reps with Jackson Arnold. It was former HC Hugh Freeze who benched Arnold after the Arkansas game, where he threw a pick-six.

It’s Deuce Knight’s night

The Auburn Tigers’ quarterback room has been buzzing with tension lately. Amid Jackson Arnold’s faltering on the field, Durkin has some real concerns, mainly about losing their five-star freshman, Deuce Knight, to the transfer portal. So, the interim HC is caught between managing a quarterback carousel and keeping one of Auburn’s top prospects happy.

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This also comes after Durkin announced Ashton Daniels would skip the game to preserve a year of eligibility. In fact, the Tigers began their season with hopes on Jackson Arnold. Despite some competence, he has the fewest touchdown passes among SEC starters with just six and about 1,263 yards. That’s why Durkin is ready to trust Deuce Knight.

“He’s earned it,” Durkin said of Knight. “He’s done a great job, and we’re excited to see him go play.” The 18-year-old was the sixth-highest-rated quarterback recruit and the second-highest-rated four-star prospect. It’s just fair that he’s itching to see the field.