“Every team, there’s a guy from Miami. Every team,” said Devonta Freeman, who himself went to Miami Central High School. “It lets you know how much talent there is from there.” His words show that Florida boasts a wealth of football talent, yet top players increasingly spurn in-state schools. Just take Lamar Jackson for starters, who went to Boynton Beach High School and went straight up to Louisville. This trend reveals a growing lack of confidence in Florida’s top programs—Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Miami’s Mario Cristobal, and the Gators’ Billy Napier—none of whom have secured consistent success. As a result, these schools fail to retain elite local talent, which is hampering their playoff hopes heading into this season.

CBS Sports analyst Josh Pate didn’t mince words before landing all three leaders of Florida’s top CFB programs with a tough reality check on his CFB show. “Chaos scenario would sound like this: What if Miami, Florida State, and Florida all finished below expectation level this year? Because what I’ve watched is I’ve watched nobody really put a death grip on the state from a talent acquisition standpoint, because none of those teams have won consistently enough. And because of that, a lot of the in-state talent has left,” Pate said. That makes sense. Bama’s entire 2020 defense was filled with Florida’s players.

Defensive lineman Stephon Wynn Jr., linebacker Dylan Moss, and special teams player Thomas Fletcher were all from IMG Academy, and yet they chose Alabama over their native place. Now, if they really want to excel and compete on a national level, they really need to keep their talented players in-state. But for now their CFP’s hopes are hanging on a thin thread.

“In the aforementioned chaos scenario this year, we’ve got all three finishing below expectation level. So the first thing I think about at Florida State is if Florida State’s below expectation—expectation level—is Norvell gone? And I would think the answer would be yes. Now, mind you, this is not some prediction or a wish—it’s just in the interest of the glass-half-empty possibilities out there. I would think that would happen.” After a 2-10 finish last season, one more blow will put Mike Norvell’s job in serious jeopardy.

Florida State is starting off its season against Alabama, and they are loaded with exceptional talent this season. From Ty Simpson to Ryan Williams, everyone is in their best form. But then let’s not forget their tough losses against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma last season. Yet their tough road games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and NC State could be a tough nut to crack. Well, the stretch is sure tough, but Mike Norvell’s team has QB Thomas Castellanos under OC Gus Malzahn’s system.

Even for their in-state rivals, the Florida Gators, Josh Pate doesn’t have much optimism to offer either. “Now in Florida, it’s a little bit different, because Napier got rid of a lot of the hot seat talk at the end of last year because they won. And there’s a lot of hype around the team. Of course, they’ve got a tough schedule—I think they’ve got the toughest in the country this year, right there with them and Oklahoma. But if Florida finishes below the expectation level—well, that could mean they won seven games. Their over-under win total is seven and a half,” Pate said.

That’s right. Even if DJ Lagway helped the Gators to finish off with an 8-4 run last season and is ready to make an impact on this season too, their schedule is just not right for them. They begin at home with consecutive games against Long Island University and USF. SEC play starts with a road game at LSU, followed by a crucial rematch against Miami, seeking revenge for last year’s 41-17 defeat. Miami will be without Heisman finalist Cam Ward, who dominated the Gators in 2024.

After a bye, Florida hosts Texas for the first time since 1940, then travels to Texas A&M, QB DJ Lagway’s homecoming. Mississippi State visits Gainesville, followed by another bye week before the annual showdown against Georgia in Jacksonville. A brutal November sees road trips to Kentucky and Ole Miss, concluding with home games against Tennessee and Florida State. So, now you know why Josh Pate’s so tough on their playoff hopes this season.

But the list doesn’t just stop there!

Miami’s playoff hopes under jeopardy

Now, you would think that Mario Cristobal’s team doesn’t have a sure playoff path despite finishing 10-3 last season. Last season, Miami football came up just one win short of reaching the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2017. Instead, the Hurricanes (10-2) fall in a thrilling but frustrating 42-38 shootout against Syracuse, who blitzes them with explosive plays and snatches the win in the final moments. So, it’s been 4 years since Miami made it to the ACC championship game or the playoffs.

And one more disappointing season will put him right in front of critics’ eyes, just like Mike Norvell. “And then with Miami—look, if Miami finishes below expectation level, I don’t know—the conversation sounds the same as it would at Florida State, only because there’s way more leash for Mario at Miami, rightfully so, than there is to this point with Mike Norvell at Florida State,” Josh Pate said.

Now, another major blow for them is losing their star QB Cam Ward and then turning to Carson Beck, whose inconsistency made things worse for Georgia last season. “I would say that’s probably finishing with eight wins or less. I would assume in this scenario the whole Carson Beck experiment didn’t play out, and that would underscore a lot of the criticism that people would have there—and that is, we didn’t have any of our homegrown guys ready to step up. That’s the entire reason we had to go get Carson Beck. That would be what a lot of the talk was—if the guys that you went and got out of the portal, say at the receiver position, didn’t pan out,” Pate added.

Georgia led the nation with 36 dropped passes last season, which resulted in Beck’s 12 interceptions. Now, to tackle this, Mario Cristobal has surely added key pieces like WR Joshua Moore, Malachi Toney, and Daylyn Upshaw, and even got key transfers like Keelan Marion. Even then, it’s all a what-if situation.

Now, let’s wait and see if Florida’s teams can make any impact this season or simply make Josh Pate’s predictions correct.